TeamPitts

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-28-2021, 03:33 PM)Au165 Wrote: Was that your argument though, that he couldn't "sniff" 100 targets because he may get hurt? I don't see you ever really talk about that. You may be modifying your position now, but the topic of injury wasn't there for multiple pages as you berated people for a TE's potential production. Why do you look at TE injuries as rookies, specifically 1st rounders, are they magically going to get hurt more because they are rookies or 1st rounders? I do think it's interesting the way you did the data because if you go back the last 10 years only 3 of 9 didn't play at least 15 games, almost like in today's NFL they are less likely to get hurt because you can't blow them up going across the middle. With that said, 50% of the 115 TE's in the league last year played at least 14 games with 40 of them playing all 16.

Fun fact, no player (WR or TE) in the league last year got to 100 targets playing less than 14 games and only 4 did it missing those 2 games, so why would I allow you to let the expectation be 12? I am saying that if the guy is healthy he can get 100 targets, I am arguing about his skill. Your argument is now morphing from a skill one to "he has to be healthy and that's part of it" argument which wasn't the position you had taken for the last couple of hours. 
 
If we are adding the potential of injury into this then we probably need to go back a couple of pages and reframe this thing because a lot of the push about why a WR is better wasn't mentioning the high rate of 1st rd WR injuries, I only saw you reference a rookie who missed no games last year.

I have talked about TEs being hurt for years. It's not a new stance. Talked about it a good amount earlier in the FA period. I even mentioned it quite awhile back in this thread when someone tried to say TEs last a long time and made like 7 examples of HoF TEs, and I said that they were great TEs BECAUSE they held up. 

You just hope your TE is more Gresham (1-2 games missed) than Eifert. 2020 was the first time Gronkowski played 16 games in the last 9 seasons. Kittle has only played 16 games in 1 of 4 seasons. 

I mentioned 1st rounders when talking about injuries earlier because they're generally expected to actually start from the getgo. If you're a 6th round pick and you play 16 games as a STer, or play like 15% of the offensive snaps, it's not really the same thing as we're talking about. ....Also because I did all that looking up and compiling by hand, and I simply didn't want to expand it.

The reason Pitts won't reach the targets isn't just because of likely injury, and it isn't just because TEs historically struggle their first year (Gronk had 546yds, Kittle had 515yds, Gonzalez had 368yds, Witten had 347yds, Gates had 389yds), and it isn't because if he goes to the Falcons he will have to share targets with Julio, Ridley, and Gage. It's a combination of all of them. The deck is stacked against the likelihood that all the stars align for his rookie season... and all of that is ignoring the possibility (regardless how small you think it is) he just outright busts.