Continued Trump Administration Fallout

[hollodero]

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: Some quick notes on the bolded: 

1. Actually there weren't always three people doing that. And more resistance is beginning to congeal into a movement.  More than 150 Republicans launch new political movement questioning Trump's role in GOP https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/politics/republican-political-movement-trump/index.html

Oh no there were always three. Well, maybe not exactly. But there was McCain and Romney was there and Corker had some bad things to say and Jeff Flake, and the guy that primaried Trump and Justin Amash, George Bush and quite some former big shots spoke out, and not to forget all the former employees, and all these bipartisan letters from a plethora of high-ranking people of all political leanings calling Bill Barr a disgrace or scolding Pompeo and all these things. Former republicans pundits in the media en masse, too. This was always there.

At some point, these things lose its meaning as long as the rest of the party does counterreact the way it does. After the Liz Cheney affair, the party is not less tied to Trump, it is more tied to him. And the stance on the election is not more controversial in the party now either.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: 2. You've set an impossibly high standard here. That's not a realistic measure of change, rather a fantasy.

Yeah and that is a sad thing. And a direct result of your outdated political system that heavily relies on thoughts of founding fathers that were not thoughtful enough to foresee parties they themselves created. European countries sure have their issues as well, but a Trump would still lose by a landslide in most of them, as is healthy. There'd be other parties to go for.
In America, where there is only one other party that tends to be disliked by many, the thought process really is, oh a candidate can not possibly lose 60-40, that just ain't gonna happen really no matter what. Trump barely appalling some more people than he additionally attracted and hence just barely losing this time is as good as it gets.
At this state, rain on election day might be a more influential factor for the outcome than anything a candidate said or did. This is an impossible low standard, of which I know it's close to the sad reality in a dangerously sclerotic political climate.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: 3. Sure, bad handling of Corona virus, but for many Trump supporters, the drop in unemployment and continued gains in the Obama economy were a big plus. Not often, if every, a president loses under those conditions. but Trump managed it. And he managed to snatch defeat in Georgia from the jaws of victory. 

Yay...!
But again, the sad thing imho is that there were jaws of victory to begin with. According to your points, due to factors that don't have all that much to do with the president. So more by chance, really.
And I know Trump lost, but this is the same to me due to it being so close. Chance. Chance no one announced any investigations into Biden a few days before the election, for example.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: 4. Trump gained voters because he was able to engage many who previously hadn't voted, ginning up fear of socialism and the like. But that was with him in the news and on twitter every day. We don't have that now.

True. That is the most hopeful thing I can see.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: And it was before 1/6. You might have had your 15% loss had the election been held a day after that.

Yeah, there are short time blips down in approval every now and then, a few days after Trump going too far. Those blips all went away soon. I don't know how many approve of him now, but I'd bet the numbers are back to where they always were, or at least already trending towards that. The behaviour of republicans seem to indicate as much, the Grahammeter.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote:   Now we have house Republicans who ran from the floor claiming that the insurrection was more like a "normal tourist visit" as the MSM juxtaposes images of the savage crowd chanting "hang Mike Pence."  That won't maintain the former numbers.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/capitol-riot-january-6-hearing-lawmakers-clash/

There is more going on here than just taking turns. The parties are not symmetrical opposites. One is much less stable, having tremendous difficulty creating issue-based consensus.

Oh no, they are not symmetrical opposites. The election results over time are. And I think the bad state a party might be in, or how ridiculous they might appear, does not change this symmetry. No matter how instable or extreme the GOP turns, there will never be a period of 8 or 12 years of democratic reign in Congress and presidency. It will always even out at some point, due to the psychology of the dissatisfied that regularly switch parties, eg. based on the economic fluctuation, and the rigid rest that never will.

One can rely on this dynamic being broken if there's a minority leader Marjorie, but given recent developments I doubt making her speaker would really change too many minds.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: 5. How many forum members who voted for Hillary https://www.cbsnews.com/news/capitol-riot-january-6-hearing-lawmakers-clash/ a preference for Trump in 2020? 

I guess none, that was not my point though.

(05-13-2021, 06:00 PM)Dill Wrote: 6. The GOP non-believers I was referring to were the elected leaders in Congress, not the rank and file base.  The latter DO believe the election was stolen and the impeachment a witch hunt. MSM bias everywhere. Fake news.  To re-explain--the base is looking for "fake" leaders and traitors to weed out. All these non believers are very vulnerable, though in the case of most Senators, not in '22. When they are replaced by Marjorie Greenes and Matt Gaetz's, that resulting instability will push more "independents" Dem-ward. 

I get the logic, I doubt that significantly more independents can or will be pushed away that weren't already pushed away and towards the democratic alternative by Trumpism until now though.
If the economy is good, then sure, Trump will probably lose in 2024. If it isn't, which seems likely no matter what Biden does, he will probably win, and the GOP will win house and senate seats. At least that's how I see it and it is unchanged by martyr Liz.