Afghanistan

[Dill]

(08-16-2021, 10:24 PM)samhain Wrote: Let the Chinese have their crack at it.  They'll eventually learn all of the same things that the US, the Soviets, the British, and everyone else who tried all the way back to Alexander the Great found out:  Nothing good comes to anyone that gets involved in that country, no matter how much military might or motivation they may have. 

A question I have is--are today's Taliban really the same as yesterday's? 

The old Taliban cared not a fig for intercourse with the outside world, nor what the world thought of them. 

So I'm wondering how much defeat, exile, and new leadership may change and shape their policy goals. Now they are traveling around the world negotiating and receiving envoys from other countries. Will they really, as feared, provide havens for ISIS an Al Qaeda--or quash them to prevent a return US invasion?

I don't think China wants to occupy A-stan, though they would like concessions for mineral extraction. And the old Taliban would never cut a deal with the "atheists," tolerate their presence and business in the country. So I am curious to see what happens.  

Perhaps the Taliban would allow some restricted development of the country, if they believed it would not "pollute" the
society they will now try to create. All this remains to be seen. If they decide they want an air force, they'll need help.
I foresee fractures in the movement if development is allowed to any degree.  If some is allowed, then I expect Pakistan will become the primary broker for outside interests. Arms from Russia and China maybe. Chinese aid to Pakistan, with some Chinese conditions.

Also, we hear the "Taliban have the country."  I think they'll "have" the same problem with Tajiks and Hazara that they
had in 2001.  Taliban "victory" doesn't mean the end of war in A-stan.