Afghanistan

[Dill]

(08-26-2021, 07:17 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I would argue that Trump was far less hawkish than Biden, so he was always less likely to recommit to Afghanistan. I would point to his history of being pretty negative with regards to the war, his actions with ISIS and the Kurds, and his stated desire to be the president who ended the war. The last point in particular drives his desire for a complete cut and run, hence him negotiating with the Taliban to hand Afghanistan over them and leave, and then him going about it without waiting for them to hold up their end. 

As I noted before, Trump showed with the Kurds that he wasn't interested in reengaging in a conflict if a terrorist group rebounded and was killing our allies. There's no reason to believe that the Taliban would see him as a bigger threat than the guy who was VP when drones were raining hellfire on them. 

The only people who ever saw Trump as a tough guy were American conservatives.

I agree with the bolded, if we are talking about commitment to war.

On the other hand, he was big on SYMBOLIC violence, like MOAB which was supposed to intimidate the Taliban, the assisination of Suleiman, and shooting down drones in the Gulf--the latter two actions walking us close to the edge of war. 

The Kurds helped the US find and kill Al Baghdadi; Leaving them then to fend for themselves is probably the best predictor of how Trump would have handled the Afghan pull out. Would he "own" bringing 20,000 Muslim collaborators to the US? 

Perhaps he would authorize some random bombing if the Taliban failed to meet some demand, killing more civilians, friend and foe, in a final masculinist gesture. But it's doubtful the Taliban would worry enough about that to alter their behavior. Trump was not going to restart the war, and that was his only possible leverage, not another MOAB. The big win for them was the Doha Agreement with its deadlines. One way or another, big boom or quiet whimper, the US was leaving.  

I don't think Trump was only tough on conservatives. Think of the whistleblowers he fired.