09-24-2021, 12:24 PM
(09-24-2021, 10:03 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Yes I was! I’m not saying pass on every play; far from it.
I’m saying when Joe Burrow DOES drop back to throw he looks deep first. As for the pass vs. run debate I still like to see more runs than passes. Attempting 40+ passes is not advisable unless a team is WAY behind.
“Slinging the ball all over the field” only works when the opposing defense respects the run. If a defense has no idea what’s coming they’ll have to hedge their bets and protect against both pass and run. Against the Bears it was hard to throw because they knew a pass was coming and this brings me to another point: The empty backfield. I don’t think that’s a good fit in Cincinnati at this point.
Attempting more runs than passes is not an ideal way to run the offense. There’s no question that a strong passing offense is more dangerous than a strong running game and this team has (most) of the tools to be a dangerous passing team. For instance, if a team were to average one more NET yard per passing attempt, the expectation would be that this would increase their point differential by 70 points. If a team were to increase their YPC by one yard, you would only see a 52 point increase. These are just high level numbers, but the advantage is clearly in favor of a strong passing offense. The question then becomes if passing is so much better, then why doesn’t everyone just pass all of the time? You don’t want to become one dimensional is the key. You do have to keep defenses guessing and not let them get into their blitz packages because blitzes are HIGHLY correlated to pressure rates and pressure rates are moderately predictive of defensive success.
In today’s NFL, an offense that is passing roughly 55% of the time is probably the strongest bet. I haven’t found numbers on the ideal ration but it will certainly be favorable to passing.
