10-11-2021, 04:57 PM
For those who are into analytics, one big one was them sending the kicker in, in the first place. Not saying I buy into these things, myself, but considering he will go for it in our own territory, this seems like a strange reversal.
https://www.nfl.com/news/week-5-s-biggest-decisions-chargers-browns-ace-fourth-down-calls-bengals-stumble
A week ago, we outlined the suboptimal decision made by Patriots coach Bill Belichick to kick a 56-yard field goal in the final minutes of a close game, leaving too much time on the clock for a future Hall of Fame quarterback to work with. This week, Taylor followed Belichick’s conservative path while facing a similar decision -- and the call resulted in a massive loss of win probability value for the Bengals (13.1 percentage points).
FOURTH QUARTER: With 26 seconds remaining and the Bengals (tied 22-22) facing a fourth-and-2 from the Packers' 39-yard line, Cincinnati's Evan McPherson misses a 57-yard field-goal attempt.
Our model pegged a successful first-down conversion to be significantly more likely than a successful field-goal attempt, driving the hefty recommendation to go for it. McPherson had a 40 percent chance to make the 57-yard field-goal attempt. On the other hand, the Bengals' offense had a 63 percent probability to gain the 2 yards necessary for the first down.
One does not need to be an analytics expert to see the huge difference between these conversion probabilities. Instead, McPherson missed the kick and Cincinnati went on to lose in overtime.
https://www.nfl.com/news/week-5-s-biggest-decisions-chargers-browns-ace-fourth-down-calls-bengals-stumble
A week ago, we outlined the suboptimal decision made by Patriots coach Bill Belichick to kick a 56-yard field goal in the final minutes of a close game, leaving too much time on the clock for a future Hall of Fame quarterback to work with. This week, Taylor followed Belichick’s conservative path while facing a similar decision -- and the call resulted in a massive loss of win probability value for the Bengals (13.1 percentage points).
FOURTH QUARTER: With 26 seconds remaining and the Bengals (tied 22-22) facing a fourth-and-2 from the Packers' 39-yard line, Cincinnati's Evan McPherson misses a 57-yard field-goal attempt.
Our model pegged a successful first-down conversion to be significantly more likely than a successful field-goal attempt, driving the hefty recommendation to go for it. McPherson had a 40 percent chance to make the 57-yard field-goal attempt. On the other hand, the Bengals' offense had a 63 percent probability to gain the 2 yards necessary for the first down.
One does not need to be an analytics expert to see the huge difference between these conversion probabilities. Instead, McPherson missed the kick and Cincinnati went on to lose in overtime.
