I Saw Bengals Telegraphing Offense Plays To Jets Defense

[*PhilHos*]

(11-02-2021, 05:22 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I've tried telling you that this doesn't matter and Au165 has also told you that there is no correlation. I will put numbers to this now. I am using 15 seconds left on the play clock as my metric for running plays 'fast'. I can change it up, if necessary.

Running plays with play clock having more than 15 seconds to go 


20 carries, 4.0 yards per carry, 0.04 EPA per attempt, 50% success rate

Running plays with play clock having less than 15 seconds to go


175 carries, 4.1 yards per carry, -0.09 EPA per attempt, 38% success rate

Passing plays with play clock having more than 15 seconds to go


27 attempts, 6.85 yards per attempt, 37% success rate, 0.001 EPA per attempt

Passing plays with play clock having less than 15 seconds to go


240 attempts, 8.05 yards per attempt, 51% success rate, 0.22 EPA per attempt


So, the Bengals pass significantly better when the play clock gets low. While rushing with a high play clock might look better, it is only off of 20 attempts. These were likely situational decisions and are not reflective of anything significant. The sample size is too small.

In closing, it doesn't matter. If it did matter, Cincinnati performs better when the play clock gets low.

IMO, it would bode better for offense to snap the ball with less time on the clock with the assumption that it gives Burrow more time to read the defense and make any adjustments/audibles as he deems necessary.