11-23-2021, 04:03 PM
(11-23-2021, 03:19 AM)CincinnatiKid Wrote: I am mathematically challenged but if you get 4.1 yards a carry that is a touchdown every drive absent a turnover. Am I wrong?
If you get 4.1 yards per carry every time, then yeah. A hypothetical RB who gets 4 yards per carry every single run, no more or less, would be the greatest player of all time and break the record for SB wins. It would also be the greatest offense of all time, they'd score every drive.
That isn't how it works in reality, though. In reality, 4.1 YPC can look like...
1 - Zero yards
2 - 1 yard
3 - 3 yards
4 - 5 yards
5 - (-1) yard
6 - 16 yards
That right there is four yards per carry. What is important to note is that in this six run sequence, four of those runs put the offense in a WORSE position than they were before. A 2nd and 7 is worse than a first and 10. You only get so many drives per game, so drives and downs are a finite resource. If you're averaging 4.1 YPC, you don't want to use your limited resources on something that is objectively worse than the alternative, that will just lead to more punts and less points. Even yesterday with Burrows meh game, he averaged 5.1 yards per attempt (which sucks, by the way). That is 24% better production, per attempt and keep in mind, that was a bad game. An average of 5.1 yards per attempt would far and away be last place in the NFL.
So, especially in the case of Cincinnati where Burrow is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and the running game is averaging 3.89 yards per carry, it doesn't make sense to be run heavy, because Cincinnati sucks at it.
