We still haven't seen Burrow's ceiling yet

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(12-09-2021, 06:48 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Palmer had more INTs than games played for his entire career. So it wasn't just a season or two.

Other than 2004, he was actually never really far from average in INT%.

In 2005 when he threw 12 on 509 attempts, that was actually 13% above average in avoiding INTs that year. Mahomes has thrown 12 INT on 478 attempts so far this year and that's 5% below average.

Palmer's INT%+ as a Bengal...

2004: 83
2005: 113
2006: 110
2007: 93
2008: 98  (Only 4 games.)
2009: 102
2010: 94

If you add them all together and divide by 7, you get 99. Or almost dead on league average (100).

This is not a bash on Joe Burrow, but in 2021 he's at 73 INT%+, so significantly worse than Palmer's worst year as a Bengal. (He was at 118 last year, so better than any year than Palmer as a Bengal.) The game has just changed to where the rules favor offenses so much that the number of INTs thrown in the past being normal is now quite abnormal by today's standards. 

A good example is Burrow's 68.3% completion this year is higher than any year Palmer ever had as a Bengal... but Burrow's CMP%+ is 113, and Palmer had 2 years better than that as a Bengal in 2005 and 2007. It's all about comparisons to the average of that year, the only way you can even begin to compare players from different years.