12-16-2021, 12:42 PM
(12-16-2021, 10:40 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You acknowledged it, but then made paragraph after paragraph ignoring it.
As for Kurt Warner, I said...
...because Kurt only got in due to being on NFL Network. He was the only former player on their crew at the time who wasn't a Hall of Famer. He probably wouldn't have gotten in without that and the whole bagging groceries story. Even then he still had a better resume than Ben. You're looking at counting stats rather than the fact that Kurt Warner had 2 MVPs and 2 All-Pros to Ben's 0 and 0. There was at least a period in time when Kurt was the best QB in the league. Ben never had that.
In fact, now that I am looking at it, Ben has a worse resume than Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is definitely not a HoFer, but at least he's been an All-Pro before and he has an MVP to his name.
Matt Ryan avg season: 65.5% completion, 4,205 passing yards (7.5 YPA), 26 TD/12 INT, 94.2 QB Rating
Big Ben avg season: 64.5% completion, 3,523 passing yards (7.6 YPA), 23 TD/12 INT, 93.9 QB Rating
- - - - - - -
I don't think Aikman belongs. He got to ride the whole America's Team hype and success. Aikman is just Terry Bradshaw, but with better hair.
Pro-football-reference.com has developed a Football HoF predictive model that incorporates honors like Pro Bowl and All Pro recognition and also considers statistical thresholds that are adjusted per era to account for differences. Their assessment disagrees with you on both Roethlisberger and Ryan. Both are ranked as just below the average HoFer, but hopefully I don't have to explain how bell curves work.
Please note that using this scale, a model that - again - adjusts for differences in era, Ben is still rated higher than some of the HoFers I referenced, as well as many of the contemporary players you mentioned (with the lone exception of Ryan, whom I believe you are underestimating).
This predictive model agrees with my assertion: that Ben is not on the same level of the cream of the crop of the HoF, but he definitely belongs in the lower tier of existing HoFers, and quite securely at that.
Their results:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm
Their method:
https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/12/introducing-the-pfr-hof-monitor/
Edit: and by the way, your theory that Warner is in because he's an NFL Network analyst is ludicrous. Are you unaware that the Pro Football HoF is a separate entity that works collaboratively with, but is neither run nor owned by the NFL?
