01-17-2022, 02:03 PM
(01-12-2022, 12:37 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: There have been a fair number of major misses among Linebackers taken in the first round over the last few years. It's making me wonder if it's one of those situations where college linebackers and NFL linebackers have fundamentally different roles in defenses and it makes them really hard to predict success in the NFL. Maybe a "spread QB" type situation where being productive in college doesn't indicate success in the NFL?
Look at the last few drafts:
2021:
Zaven Collins - Obviously, it's very early and he may end up developing, but Collins has been a back up role player so far for Arizona, playing only 20.22% of defensive snaps, and has basically only played special teams since week 9, per this report.
Jamin Davis - Davis was thought to add strength to an already elite defense but, somehow, the WFT defense got worse despite adding a first round LB. His PFF grade of 43.3 is not great, nor is the fact that he was not played late into the season, even in run/TE heavy offenses like the Eagles, per this report.
2020:
Isaiah Simmons - poor PFF grade and not nearly the impact you'd expect from a top 10 pick. I haven't found similar reports of struggles like I did with Collins and Davis, but I did find a fan discussion about him in December 2021, where they seem pretty disappointed with his output.
Kenneth Murray - Another poor PFF grade and an article from a Chargers News website that says the following: "The most inexcusable thing Staley did in this game was play Kenneth Murray as much as he did. Murray was used as the team's dime linebacker and he was exposed time and time again... as he has been all season. Who knows what the logic behind that is."
Patrick Queen - Named the most disappointing player halfway through the 2021 season, per this article. Maybe he recovered and had a better second half of the season, but his PFF grade has been poor as well.
2019:
Devin Bush - All you have to do is mention the name to a Steelers fan and they go full Yinzer-cursing mode. He has not had a good career thus far.
It may also just be a case where LBers need a few years to adapt to the NFL. In either case, I think we should avoid LB in the draft. If we want to pursue a guy like Miller in FA, I'd be open to it but even he seems more like a 3-4 LB than a 4-3 LB. I wonder if we'd be able to use him properly.
I personally feel like it's a failing in scouting. Teams are obsessed with getting the 3 down LB that covers RB's and TE's like a S. They get so locked in on measurables that project to that cover LB that a ton of issues on film get overlooked. I remember being the bad guy the year Patrick Queen came out and talking about how terrible his tape was. But teams want that guy that can match up with a Kelce, so they draft traits based prospects early and hope the can mold them into something.
