02-05-2022, 05:37 PM
Good OP from Fred.
Let us break it down. Assume Waynes is gone + $3 mil for XSF = $14 mil more. $72 mil.
Priority #1: Bates.
He is likely the most expensive guy we have. He underachieved in the regular season after a stellar 2020. Has come up big in the POs. I think $20 mil is too much for a FS with only 1 good year. And who is weak vs the run. Franchise tag is estimated at $13 mil. That keaves us with $59 mil.
https://www.spotrac.com/spots/projected-2022-nfl-tenders-franchise-tag-values-1349/
If things get ugly, a good safery should be available at #31/#32.
Priority #2: Spain.
Rule #1 when you are in a hole, stop digging. The OL is a hole, but Spain is one of our top 2. Keep him and try to inprove the rest. He is solid but not exceptional. I do not see Carman, Adeniji, or Smith ready to start yet. Say $7 mil? He has said ye wants to be back. Hope he is a bridge vet and Carman eventually takes RG from him. $53 mil left.
Kenyon Green has a chance to be there at #31/#32, but I would not count on it. Plus, I think RT will be priority. But, Zion Johnson is likely there.
Priority #3: CJ.
Upgrading at TE#3 is also a priority. Dropoff after CJ is huge. Again, if in hole, stop digging. I also think CJ is willing to come back in a reasonable deal. $8 mil. $45 mil.
Priority #4. DT. Hill, Ogunjobi, Tupou.
Gotta bring 2 back, or at least 1. I think the plan was to have Shelvin take over for Tupou as NT#2, but not sure if he is ready yet. Tupou can play both NT & DT, Shelvin cannot. Mike Daniels also a possible short term solution there. Tupou is likely the cheapest of the 3.
Ogunjobi the most expensive, and the only real guy who gets pressure semi-consistently from the inside. Though with Ossai back next year, we coukd see more of Hubbard & Sample inside.
Will be interesting. Say we go big and spend $15 for Larry O AND Hill. Down to $30 mil.
Priority #5. Apple/CB.
I think he is likely to have the most inflated opinion of his own worth. I would not go much over $6 mil. If not enough, I'd draft someone or go for another FA in that price range. $24 mil.
Priority #6. Reiff/RT.
If Reiff voids his deal, we save $2.75 mil, rounded to $3 mil. $27 mil. I think the RT FAs are too pricey, mostly LT guys. We could try to sign him on the cheap to play LG and be the swing tackle and mentor the guy we draft (Penning, Raimann, etc). Say $5 mil. $22 mil left.
We have $22 mil left and have to deal with the draft pool. Say $10 mil. Down to $12 mil. Of course, that is 8 more guys. Some of the guys drafted will displace vets. We'll save some dollars there. Say $5. Back to $17 mil.
Enough to get an immediate mild RG/C upgrade ($6 mil to $10 mil). We could save $6 mil by letting Hopkins walk. If not, we still have $7-$11 mil for the rest of the roster or emergency moves in season.
Again, rough back of the napkin stuff. And that is with re-signing Bates, Spain, CJ, Larry O, Hill, Apple, and Reiff. If we let one or more walk, or let Hopkins go, we could save even more.
But I do not expect us to have a shopping spree. I do expect 1 impact level offensive lineman signed. With another impact FA possible if we let Hopkins go or let another if our iwn FAs walk.
Let us break it down. Assume Waynes is gone + $3 mil for XSF = $14 mil more. $72 mil.
Priority #1: Bates.
He is likely the most expensive guy we have. He underachieved in the regular season after a stellar 2020. Has come up big in the POs. I think $20 mil is too much for a FS with only 1 good year. And who is weak vs the run. Franchise tag is estimated at $13 mil. That keaves us with $59 mil.
https://www.spotrac.com/spots/projected-2022-nfl-tenders-franchise-tag-values-1349/
If things get ugly, a good safery should be available at #31/#32.
Priority #2: Spain.
Rule #1 when you are in a hole, stop digging. The OL is a hole, but Spain is one of our top 2. Keep him and try to inprove the rest. He is solid but not exceptional. I do not see Carman, Adeniji, or Smith ready to start yet. Say $7 mil? He has said ye wants to be back. Hope he is a bridge vet and Carman eventually takes RG from him. $53 mil left.
Kenyon Green has a chance to be there at #31/#32, but I would not count on it. Plus, I think RT will be priority. But, Zion Johnson is likely there.
Priority #3: CJ.
Upgrading at TE#3 is also a priority. Dropoff after CJ is huge. Again, if in hole, stop digging. I also think CJ is willing to come back in a reasonable deal. $8 mil. $45 mil.
Priority #4. DT. Hill, Ogunjobi, Tupou.
Gotta bring 2 back, or at least 1. I think the plan was to have Shelvin take over for Tupou as NT#2, but not sure if he is ready yet. Tupou can play both NT & DT, Shelvin cannot. Mike Daniels also a possible short term solution there. Tupou is likely the cheapest of the 3.
Ogunjobi the most expensive, and the only real guy who gets pressure semi-consistently from the inside. Though with Ossai back next year, we coukd see more of Hubbard & Sample inside.
Will be interesting. Say we go big and spend $15 for Larry O AND Hill. Down to $30 mil.
Priority #5. Apple/CB.
I think he is likely to have the most inflated opinion of his own worth. I would not go much over $6 mil. If not enough, I'd draft someone or go for another FA in that price range. $24 mil.
Priority #6. Reiff/RT.
If Reiff voids his deal, we save $2.75 mil, rounded to $3 mil. $27 mil. I think the RT FAs are too pricey, mostly LT guys. We could try to sign him on the cheap to play LG and be the swing tackle and mentor the guy we draft (Penning, Raimann, etc). Say $5 mil. $22 mil left.
We have $22 mil left and have to deal with the draft pool. Say $10 mil. Down to $12 mil. Of course, that is 8 more guys. Some of the guys drafted will displace vets. We'll save some dollars there. Say $5. Back to $17 mil.
Enough to get an immediate mild RG/C upgrade ($6 mil to $10 mil). We could save $6 mil by letting Hopkins walk. If not, we still have $7-$11 mil for the rest of the roster or emergency moves in season.
Again, rough back of the napkin stuff. And that is with re-signing Bates, Spain, CJ, Larry O, Hill, Apple, and Reiff. If we let one or more walk, or let Hopkins go, we could save even more.
But I do not expect us to have a shopping spree. I do expect 1 impact level offensive lineman signed. With another impact FA possible if we let Hopkins go or let another if our iwn FAs walk.
