Punter Dru Chrisman

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-08-2022, 05:34 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The success rate on draft picks is amazing to look at as a whole for the NFL.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Notables from the numbers:


- If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.

- TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

- You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.

- QBs seem to be first round or bust.

- O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.

- Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.

- Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick. (Found this one to be very interesting.)

RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.

I really don't like the criteria they have for success, as it doesn't have any basis in if they are actually good, just that they play. That gets even more faulty when you realize that draft position gives people more chance to start even if they don't deserve it and don't perform well with their chances.

Zach Wilson and Joe Burrow are both equally considered "successes" by that criteria so far.

Also by that criteria, Tyler Boyd is creeping towards being in danger of losing "success" status unless he starts more games, as he only started 8 in 2020 and 10 in 2021 (but still played 75%+ of the snaps in both years).... but Jeremy Hill is considered a successful 2nd round pick because he started 43 games in his 5 year career before being out of the league.

Mike Hilton is not a success, because he's a nickle CB who doesn't often get the start, but still plays 2/3rds of the snaps every single year.