02-09-2022, 08:12 PM
(02-09-2022, 04:01 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: The mistake so many people make when analyzing Super Bowl matchups is relying on season-long body of work data and modeling. I understand the mindset -- it's a larger sample size and therefore it should be more reliable.
The problem is: models of NFL success are almost universally terrible at the level of game-to-game prediction. They're just bad. Moreover, the Super Bowl isn't won by the team that performed at the highest level throughout the season. It's won by the team that performed at the highest level in the game. Perhaps postseason stats alone provide a better gauge just for recency's sake, but even that is dubious.
Both of these teams have had to overcome very difficult opponents to get to this point. The Bengals especially have had to get through at least two that were better on paper by every meaningful metric in the book. No model on Earth said the Bengals were favored in Kansas City. We can either say "they defied probability and got lucky" or we can say "the Bengals were a better football team than the Chiefs on 30 January, 2022". To scoff at the latter is nonsense in my view.
The Super Bowl will be no different. All of the prognosticating and especially the smack talk -- it's irrelevant noise. There is no model good enough to answer the question "who will win?" with any degree of reliability, and therefore we cannot really determine what to expect until we're watching the game live.
Well said JaggedJimmy. We don't know what team will show up. The team that wants it the most and makes the least amount
of mistakes will be the team that wins. In the Playoffs both teams have been great against quality opponents and that is why
they are here. These are the 2 best teams in the NFL. It will be tough.
(02-09-2022, 04:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That is total yardage.
And they were 6th in pass attempts against them.
When you look at efficiency they are top 5.
True.
(02-09-2022, 04:04 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: You have to be careful using standard rankings. They tell you nothing. The Rams rank 22nd in pass defense because....they faced the 6th most pass attempts. However, despite facing the 6th most pass attempts, they have the 5th best rating allowed (83), favorable EPA numbers and the 2nd fewest TDs allowed. It has been tough to pass on them this season, which is in part to their ferocious pass rush.
I have faith that Cincinnati can pass on them, this is a very good team in their own right. There is some reality when discussing stuff like this and for everyone saying that the Rams possess a middle of the pack or mediocre pass defense, it just isn't true. That's a very good defense that matches up poorly with our offense. It's not insurmountable by any means, but they will be tough.
Spot on honestly. Just saying you can pass on them, we just have to have a good scheme prepared to attack them with.
Chase in the Slot a lot, Mixon coming out of the backfield for screens and dump offs, middle TE screens, slants and try to run
the ball in 2nd and short to wear AD and company out. It will be a battle, no one is saying any different besides a slim few.
All I know is as much as is being made about Donald matching up against our pathetic OL not much is being said about our
DL going against their OL or much at all about our Defense and the main reason we are where we are.
