02-16-2022, 11:20 AM
CNN dropped this gem yesterday
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/economy/russia-ukraine-inflation/index.html
"Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds"
Before I go into why this is wrong, here are some fun bits from the article:
The first problem here is there's an unpublished study shared 'exclusively' with CNN that nobody else has access to. That's some Adam Schefter shit right there.
It's also seems to be implying the inflation rate is primarily impacted by the price of oil. Like most goods, they're correlated, but not as much as one would think. It's a lazy narrative.
Here's an article on the relationship between oil and inflation: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/167245/economics/the-relationship-between-oil-prices-and-inflation/
Here's the real driver of the headline. So here we're saying it will slowly impact inflation over a period of time...which to the normal person they'd say "oh that makes sense" but it has not been true since the 70s. However, there's no real way we can see how this was determined because it's an 'exclusive' study and we have to take the word of CNN/RSM.
Moving on.....
Gas prices (49.6% increase) are definitely tops in the CPI for 2021, but the price of oil is not the reason we saw used vehicles (37.3%), Utility gas (24.1%), Meat (12.5%), or tobacco (9%) increases. The chip shortage has been killing us for the last 18 months or so. Wage growth has been stupid high over the last year. Supply chain issues also keep coming up.
My whole point is this headline seems to want to say "Blame Russia for inflation" with an article saying the price of crude oil will be responsible for inflation going over 10%. When in reality inflation has been a problem for at least a year (long beyond this Ukraine thing) and there are more serious impacts to inflation than the price of oil...which this article doesn't care to cover.
Sadly, I'll still go to CNN first for news because i only have to type 3 letters to get to the website.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/economy/russia-ukraine-inflation/index.html
"Exclusive: Russia-Ukraine conflict could cause inflation to hit 10%, new analysis finds"
Before I go into why this is wrong, here are some fun bits from the article:
Quote:If the Russia-Ukraine crisis drives oil to about $110 a barrel, inflation in the United States would exceed 10% on a year-over-year basis, according to a new analysis by RSM shared exclusively with CNN.
The first problem here is there's an unpublished study shared 'exclusively' with CNN that nobody else has access to. That's some Adam Schefter shit right there.
It's also seems to be implying the inflation rate is primarily impacted by the price of oil. Like most goods, they're correlated, but not as much as one would think. It's a lazy narrative.
Here's an article on the relationship between oil and inflation: https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/167245/economics/the-relationship-between-oil-prices-and-inflation/
Quote:Brusuelas estimates that a roughly 20% increase in oil prices to around $110 would lift consumer prices by 2.8 percentage points over the course of the following 12 months, lifting inflation above the 10% threshold. That would run counter to current expectations for inflation to gradually cool off from elevated levels.
Here's the real driver of the headline. So here we're saying it will slowly impact inflation over a period of time...which to the normal person they'd say "oh that makes sense" but it has not been true since the 70s. However, there's no real way we can see how this was determined because it's an 'exclusive' study and we have to take the word of CNN/RSM.
Moving on.....
Gas prices (49.6% increase) are definitely tops in the CPI for 2021, but the price of oil is not the reason we saw used vehicles (37.3%), Utility gas (24.1%), Meat (12.5%), or tobacco (9%) increases. The chip shortage has been killing us for the last 18 months or so. Wage growth has been stupid high over the last year. Supply chain issues also keep coming up.
My whole point is this headline seems to want to say "Blame Russia for inflation" with an article saying the price of crude oil will be responsible for inflation going over 10%. When in reality inflation has been a problem for at least a year (long beyond this Ukraine thing) and there are more serious impacts to inflation than the price of oil...which this article doesn't care to cover.
Sadly, I'll still go to CNN first for news because i only have to type 3 letters to get to the website.
