02-17-2022, 09:12 PM
(02-17-2022, 08:10 PM)basballguy Wrote: Had I known I would've spent more time explaining how inflation works and less time talking about lame journalism, I probably wouldn't have posted this.
It's not a question of if oil prices go up. The entire study has a baseline of "What would happen to inflation if oil prices went up by 20 dollars"
So the study/article are implying:
1) The conflict will drive the price of oil up and sets a target of $110 for a baseline. (Not unreasonable and was never even a discussion point)
2) This $20 increase in crude oil will have a large enough impact on 31 different categories used to calculate the actual inflation rate (CPI) to increase the rate by 2.8% to a total of 10.3% (this is the shit i'm saying doesn't make sense)
For reference (since you're throwing out guarantees),
When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, Crude Oil went up roughly 32% and the CPI (inflation rate) increased by 0.6%
When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, Crude Oil went down by 9% and the CPI decreased by 0.2%
When the US invaded Iraq in 2003, Crude Oil went down by 16% and the CPI decreased by 0.8%
So in all your infinite wisdom, please explain to me why the following makes sense:
When Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, Crude Oil will go up 22% and the CPI will increase by 2.8%
It does not pass the smell test and can't be verified because the study is not published....and that's why I posted here. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm saying it's a very sensational claim to make without providing the actual analysis to support it.
I don't know how else to explain it.
I'll take a shot at explaining it. I took some math and economics classes in high school 20+ years ago.
Current lists
GDP global list
Russia #11
Kuwait #59
Iraq #53
Afghanistan #116
Oil production global list
Russia #2- 9.8 million barrels a day
Kuwait #10- 2.6 million barrels a day
Iraq #5- 4.1 million barrels a day
Afghanistan doesn't make the list
Natural gas production global list
Russia #2- 669,500 cubic meters a year
Kuwait #35- 16,910 cubic meters a year
Iraq #67- 1,002 cubic meters a year
Afghanistan #78- 165 cubic meters a year
Oh and china is buddying up with russia
