02-24-2022, 03:51 PM
(02-24-2022, 03:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Taiwan would be very complicated and messy, though. It's a separated island with a capable military and plenty of countries willing to defend it. I agree, like you said, if China invades Taiwan then we have WWIII on our hands. It's hard to figure out how many assets would be committed to Europe in the event that the U.S. reversed course and put boots on the ground, but they would likely hold reserves that could be moved to Taiwan in the event that China became involved. The Japanese would also commit to defending Taiwan.
If anything, I can imagine the U.S. becoming involved with the Air Force well before any infantry are involved in Ukraine, even if NATO goes in. Bombing runs and air superiority, missile strikes. I genuinely don't think we get here, though, unless something drastically changes. From what I can gather, Ukraine is largely on its own for the near future.
I think it's almost a dead certainty that China is eyeing the western response to this and making plans accordingly. The thing about invading Taiwan, other than what you already mentioned, is that it will result in China being completely cut off from western markets. They already have a hostile India on their border and all their bordering, or close in proximity neighbors absolutely loathe them, with the exception of N. Korea. You cannot run a huge economy by only trading with Russia, Iran and North Korea. They could try and keep their efforts in Africa up to speed, but an invasion of Taiwan means that steps would be taken to actively stop that.
