Easy answer to our short yardage probems.

[KillerGoose]

(03-06-2022, 03:36 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Show me the statistics for running the ball from the ball from the shotgun on third and one from midfield in the Super Bowl when you have a horrible offensive line that doesn't make the defense fear a pass because they know the line can't protect the quarterback so they'll obviously sell-out to stop the run with 8 men in the box and, even if they didn't have 8 in the box, trying to run over one of the best DTs in the league like Donald. 

You can do all that or just concede that I'm correct about this.

This can be pulled, you'll just need to provide criteria on what you define as a horrible offensive line. Here are some base statistics, since 1999.

Short yardage rushes in the Super Bowl (down = 3, yards to go = 1)

119 rushes with a 57% conversion rate

Short yardage rushes in the Super Bowl, under center (down = 3, yards to go = 1)


102 rushes with a 54% conversion rate

Short yardage rushes in the Super Bowl, shotgun (down = 3, yards to go = 1)


17 rushes with a 71% conversion rate


You mentioned midfield, so I can provide some data about rushes that occurred around midfield as well.

Short yardage rushes in the Super Bowl, shotgun (down = 3, yards to go = 1, yard line between the 40s)


32 rushes with a 62% conversion rate

Short yardage rushes in the Super Bowl, shotgun (down = 3, yards to go = 1, yard line between the 40s)


Three rushes with a 100% conversion rate


In all reality, these datasets are too small to determine anything effectively, even if they still follow the overall trend of shotgun rushes being more successful than under center rushes in short yardage situations. Limiting it to the Super Bowl really hurts our dataset. Here is a dataset including all regular and postseason games for the same criteria.

Short yardage rushes since 1999, under center (down = 3, yards to go = 1, yard line between the 40s)


3331 rushes with a 58% conversion rate

Short yardage rushes since 1999, shotgun (down = 3, yards to go = 1, yard line between the 40s)


482 rushes with a 66% conversion rate