03-22-2022, 09:47 AM
(03-05-2022, 03:04 AM)phil413 Wrote: I think I asked this in passing a few years ago, but I notice that we have moved beyond debating players to now banking on PFF's FA predictions regarding estimated contracts.
1. Are we putting too much stock into them, specifically at positions like OL where there is more than just sacks allowed and pressures.
2. I'm shocked that they don't have serious competition. I feel like a former GM (and draft guru) Mike Mayock could start a site as a figurehead with a bunch of retired scouts that want to make money scouting tape and reporting what they find. I don't know enough about PFF's crew, are they closer to the kids that eyeball the Madden ratings or are they actually credible? If I had a site that showed me PFF ratings with multiple reputable guys telling me why Quinton Spain is a "65" and what that means, or what their average is for a player....I may actually pay for that info. This could make a lot of money for someone.
I think it is probably easier to predict a contract than grade a player's on field performance.
For Karras they estimated 3yr/$13M with $6.25M guaranteed, $4.33M/yr average. Sportrac reports his contract as 3yr/$18M with $5M guaranteed, $6M/yr average.
For Cappa they estimated 4yr/$37M with $20M guaranteed, $9.25M/yr average. Spotrac reports his contract as 4yr/$35M with $11M guaranteed, $8.75M/yr average.
As far as estimates, I would say they were in the ballpark on these two. I would say their predictions are more accurate than mine would be if I attempted to make the same predictions.
These estimates give fans an idea who their team may be able to afford. I don't think they have much use beyond that.
