03-24-2022, 03:53 PM
(03-24-2022, 10:43 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: This will be his sixth season, he has been here for a while. He is also wearing out the tread on his tires, which is my concern. RBs start seeing increasing performance declines after they hit the 1k carry mark and Mixon has struggled with injuries already. Mixon has 1104 carries thus far in his career. Using historical data I've put together from various "bell cow" RBs, I am projecting him out to have 4.3 yards per carry this season. I do think that Mixon is quite the talent and that the offensive line will be improved, so I am throwing a +- of 0.2 yards. So, 4.1 to 4.5 is my guess for the upcoming season.
You seem to have put some effort into researching this but I think you're underestimating what RBs are capable of. It's hard to believe 1k attempts would be the drop off when just least season there were 2 active players over 3k attempts.
I don't think anyone is predicting Derrick Henry to decline this season. He's at 1400 or so attempts.
I thought the general consensus is RBs "peak" at 25 or so. I'm inclined to believe Mixon has better odds of having his best ever season (versus beginning a decline in production).
https://apexfantasyleagues.com/peak-age-nfl-running-back/
