04-24-2022, 04:39 PM
(04-24-2022, 03:18 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: What I gather from this discussion is that we shouldn’t bank on Carmen improving all that much. I’m not saying he won’t improve—I’m just saying we should plan for the worst case scenario. If we wait on him like we did so many other lineman, we could be in a tough spot. I say if the value is at guard or center in the 1st you pick that best player available as we need depth and competition all across the roster. LG is our weak link right now, so it makes sense to pick a LG or center if they are the BPA. We can’t plan on Carmen becoming an all pro until he shows it first. We made some big mistakes in the past banking on young players becoming all pros and they never got close. I say it’s about time we Learn from our mistakes.
If you look around the NFL you will see that most teams do not draft over a player they took in the second round the year before. That is because most NFL players improve from their rookie season. I could provide a list of dozens of very good NFL players who were not good as rookies. If you keep drafting over second round picks the next year then you are going to be wasting a lot of picks replacing guys that actually develop into solid starters.
The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a 10+ sack season, but zero did it as a rookie.
31 second round picks had a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 did it as a rookie.
21 second round picks had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 did it as a rookie.
496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but far less than half of them (200) did it as a rookie.
You just don't draft over a second round pick the next season unless he has some physical/injury problem.
