05-03-2022, 01:53 PM
(05-03-2022, 01:00 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Things definitely don't look great right now, but these comments are foolish. I live in Oklahoma, and the amount of people I heard say that Biden had "zero chance" at winning was substantial, despite data saying that Biden was a heavy favorite. Biden certainly has a chance at getting re-elected, but it is nowhere near as good as it was in 2020. In a hypothetical election as of today, data suggests that Biden & Trump are neck-and-neck. A normal margin of error is around five points. For reference, when Biden defeated Trump, he was a nine point favorite, which is why many felt he would win. When Trump beat Hillary, she was only a four point favorite, within the margin of error. Trump swung that and beat her. Since Trump has fared better than his polling suggests, I would have Trump as a favorite right now, but that doesn't mean that Biden has no chance.
Anecdote that I found funny. My wife and in-laws are die hard Republicans and leading up to the election, they were laughing at the possibility of Biden winning. They were mentioning all of the normal talking points - Sleepy Joe, Trump's rally sizes etc. I had mentioned that things actually didn't look great for Donald according to polling data and told them there was a very real, very likely chance he wasn't going to win. Of course, that didn't prompt any productive conversation. When Biden won, this family was absolutely floored. They had taken the bait without looking into it themselves.
I guess my point is I think there is value in trying to stay in a realm of reality. Trump is likely a favorite as of today, but Biden still has a chance. This also isn't taking into account potential emotional shifts as election season arrives. People may not be a fan of Biden right now, but once/if Trump comes back into the spotlight, you may find folks being reminded of their distaste for him and sticking to Joe. IMO, that is the single largest reason Trump lost - if he was your average mannered president, he would have won, I think. He lost because people dislike him as a person so much. It's hard to quantify that until you're in the moment I.E. election season.
Shifting away from the exhausting Biden/Trump conversation, I would love to see some new faces as the elected candidates. I would prefer younger candidates. On the GOP side, I think that would look like DeSantis but I am not sure who the Dems could put. Buttigieg fits the young criteria but I didn't pay much attention to him this past cycle and I am not as familiar with his stances or experience.
I think you missed the point. Nobody is saying the Dems won't win in 2024 (it's still a possibility)....we're just saying Biden won't be the nominee so there's no way he'll be re-elected. :)
