Who Wins The AFCN "Honestly"

[THE PISTONS]

(05-15-2022, 08:00 PM)felis tigris Wrote: I have us going 4-2 on balance, based on the following assumptions:


Pittsburgh (home)    90% chance of winning - I know that looks high, but Mitch Trubisky, their defense and at home, it might honestly be pessimistic to say Burrow & Co only win 9 out of 10.
Pittsburgh (away)     65% chance of winning - all of the above, but their field, I think Bengals take nearly 2 out of 3
Baltimore (home)     75% chance of winning - I know they were injury-riddled the 2nd game last season, but Bengals thumped them when they were healthy as well
Baltimore (away)     50% chance of winning - as above, I believe they've figured out how to slow, if not outright contain, Jackson, though this is probably the most optimistic projection
Cleveland (home)     60% chance of winning - these are pretty much the "toss-up" games - I give us an edge at home, and Browns the same at their stadium
Cleveland (away)     40% chance of winning


All of this yields an average expected number of wins of 3.8, round to 4-2


Running those odds over 200 iterations yielded:
6-0       8.0% of the time
5-1     25.5% of the time
4-2     35.0% of the time
3-3     19.5% of the time
2-4       9.5% of the time
1-5       2.5% of the time
0-6       0.0% of the time

It feels like the Steelers always play us tough no matter what injuries they have. Like I fully expect us to beat them twice.

But, if we played them 10 times...I doubt we win all 10.