08-03-2022, 02:19 PM
Let's all remember that, while authoritarian and paranoic, China is nevertheless the world's premiere long-gamer. They're not going to war over a Pelosi visit to Taiwan. Not even if there is an accidental encounter with U.S./Taiwanese aircraft and ships.
Maybe a bit too soon to decide whether P's visit is a good or bad thing.
I do confess, however, that I like the extra pushback against, not just China, but Xi, complicating his push
for a 3rd presidency. Betting this is positively received by all countries along China's "nine-dash line" from the Philippines to Malaysia
to Vietnam--all of whom want the U.S. presence as a counter weight.
The negative I see here concerns the home audience more than actual foreign policy--our friends on the right will frame this
as Biden "weakness"* as he does not have dictatorial Trump-style control of his own party leaders.
*Absence of regional knowledge sufficient to understand how their own history and perceived regional/national/security interests are the first driver of our adversaries policy choices frequently leads to the default position that such choices are primarily responses to perceived "weakness" or "strength" of U.S. presidents. Not that autocrats aren't judging weakness/strength--that's the authoritarian mindset--just that that should not be the only tool in our FP assessment box.
Maybe a bit too soon to decide whether P's visit is a good or bad thing.
I do confess, however, that I like the extra pushback against, not just China, but Xi, complicating his push
for a 3rd presidency. Betting this is positively received by all countries along China's "nine-dash line" from the Philippines to Malaysia
to Vietnam--all of whom want the U.S. presence as a counter weight.
The negative I see here concerns the home audience more than actual foreign policy--our friends on the right will frame this
as Biden "weakness"* as he does not have dictatorial Trump-style control of his own party leaders.
*Absence of regional knowledge sufficient to understand how their own history and perceived regional/national/security interests are the first driver of our adversaries policy choices frequently leads to the default position that such choices are primarily responses to perceived "weakness" or "strength" of U.S. presidents. Not that autocrats aren't judging weakness/strength--that's the authoritarian mindset--just that that should not be the only tool in our FP assessment box.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
