There is a significant hole on this team...

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-04-2022, 12:39 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: and in my opinion, it's going to be the pass rush/secondary.

Both go hand in hand.

In 2020 the Bengals had arguably the worst pass rush in the NFL. They averaged a little over 1 sack a game. The Bengals knew how bad their pass rush was, so they brought in Larry Ogunjobi (7 sacks last year), Trey Hendrickson (14 sacks), and BJ Hill (5.5 sacks). In 2021, they more than doubled that sack per game average to 2.5 per game (11th in the NFL). Their pass rush was exponentially better in 2021 than it was in 2020. You can directly attribute this to the players they added.

Larry Ogunjobi averaged about 70% of the snaps last year, he won't be back on the team this year. BJ Hill averaged 49% of the snaps last year in the same position, effectively backing Larry up.

Here is Larry O's production from last year compared to BJ Hills:






We can argue back and fourth about which one is actually the better player, but one thing is for sure - the Bengals are basically counting on a combination of BJ Hill and Josh Tupuo to replace the production of Larry Ogunjobi and BJ Hill. Do you feel comfortable with Josh Tupuo getting 50% of the snaps next year and providing the kind of production that BJ Hill provided?

That is no bueno, especially for a team looking to make a Super Bowl run. My questions is this: if they felt the need to bring in BOTH BJ Hill and Larry Ogunjobi last year to help with the pass rush, why do they feel comfortable not supplementing BJ Hill with another quality option?

Only time will tell, but I REALLY think this comes back to bite them during the season. I think the pass rush will suffer this year and in turn I think the pass defense will suffer. It all starts with the defensive lines push - which has taken a pretty sizeable step back IMO.

A couple things about the stats.  Ogunjobi didn't play in 16 games, and BJ Hill didn't take as many snaps as Ogunjobi when he was healthy.  I would like to see you calculate these numbers in terms of per snap.  Also, I think Hill was a more reliable run defender.  Ogunjobi seemed to be a little undisciplined in his pass rush at times.  

Also, Tupou is a backup NT, not a 3T.  I think we will most likely see a combination of Hill, 3rd round rookie Carter, Cam Sample, and maybe even Hubbard when Ossai is on the outside.  

When the Bengals have "gone young" and relied on a 2nd year (or sometimes rookie) player over a veteran (Think how Logan Wilson played early) it has generally worked out for them.  In other words, if they don't feel the need to bring in a veteran 3T, I am not going to worry about it.  They still could, but I think they are likely more concerned with the depth at WR.  I am still holding out hope for a Will Fuller signing for about $4 million in one year with incentives.  He would be the best outside threat when Chase moves to the slot.  

The pass rush has the potential to have a significant leap in production by having a rotation with Ossai, a healthy Kareem, and perhaps a rookie like Gunter or 2nd year player (essentially a rookie) Wyatt Hubert could provide a quality rotation.  Ossai could be the single greatest improvement on the defense this year.  

As far as the secondary goes, we don't have to look for a guy to fill an injured starters role like last year.  Apple had a rough start filling in for Trae Waynes.  He progressed as the season wore on, but that was a pretty tall task so early in the season.  We have improved depth behind the starters and a lot of speed.  Three safety looks (assuming Bates plays) could be really fun to watch with Hill.  

Bottom line:  There is no way you look at this year's week 1 starting defense and think it is less than last years.  Lost one guy, replaced him with a guy that everyone thinks is just as good, and added speed and depth at every position except LB.