08-19-2022, 01:01 PM
(08-19-2022, 12:31 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Trump is such an absurd wildcard, though. After 2016 you had people on both sides of the aisle looking at a 91% chance Biden wins and saying "Trump is gonna win this thing, I just know it."
He did still overperform, so he does have a history of that. At least in 2016, Hillary wasn't that big of a favorite. She was given a 67% chance of victory compared to Biden's 90+. You are correct, though. I remember talking to my in-laws about the election. They asked who I thought would win, and I said Biden. They are conservative, so they said "what? why?" and I told them that the polling data had Biden as a clear favorite. They pretty much said your quote verbatim. "Nah, those things aren't accurate. No way Trump loses."
