What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*PhilHos*]

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It is not bullshit.  The numbers prove I am correct.  You can't compare every long completion in every game situation to a long completion against a defense specifically designed to stop a 3rd and 25.

You can, when you claim that the reason for said completion was due to luck and not the skills of the players involved. Say it was Huber that threw the pass, since it's not something he regularly does and doesn't regularly complete long passes, then, yes, one could say there was a lot of luck involved.

Since it's a QB who, up til this point, has thrown a LOT of passes that went for 27 yards or more, you can't claim it was luck simply because of the down and distance. That's like saying every game winning TD or FG is due to luck and not skill. 

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Over the last 4 years NFL QBs have completed 3841 passes for 25+ yards.  Only one has been on 3rd-and-25+.  13 different QBs have 100 or more completions for 25+ yards.  Not a single one of them has done it on 3rd-and 25+.

Rarity does not equal luck. 
Only 1 QB in NFL history has thrown 55 TD passes in the regular season. I guess Peyton Manning was just lucky.
Only 1 QB in NFL history has hit a FG from beyond 65 yards. I guess Justin Tucker was just lucky.

(08-29-2022, 02:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually the reason I can't point to luck is the exact same reason that you can't point to luck in a video of a ten year old making a full court shot.  And that reason is that just showing a video of something happening doesn't prove ANYTHING about how lucky it was.  That entire argument was a logical failure.

Except that everyone knows making a full court shot is a rarity for ANYONE let alone a ten year old. If I posted a video of Stephen Curry making a game winning 3 pointer, no one would claim he's lucky, because he's know for making 3 pointers. Burrow and Chase were know for making big plays by the time this 3rd and 27 rolled around.