What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-30-2022, 11:23 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don't think the 3rd and 27 play was lucky, just improbable. Maybe the Bengals were lucky that KC played the defense they did, but that is as far as I would go. The Chiefs played a risky defense and Burrow/Chase played up to their strengths to make a play. The beauty of sports is making improbable plays.

Since 1999, there have been 1,118 third downs with >= 25 yards to go. Only 25 of them have been converted, or 2.2%. A very rare thing indeed.

I disagree in this specific instance. Randomly, sure. Improbable. 

In that instance, i'd lean more to probable, considering the players and what had happened up to that point.