What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[*PhilHos*]

(08-30-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The reason you are stuck in this circular argument is that you refuse to acknowledge what every NFL fan knows and what the numbers I posted prove.  It is EXTREMELY rare to convert ANY 3rd-and-25.

Please, just once, stop lying in a post. I've acknowledged that converting 3rd-and-25+ is rare. You know, part of the whole "rarity does not equal luck" part of my argument? You even mention it a couple times.

Just goes to prove my other point about you trolling.

(08-30-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: All you do is keep ignoring the numbers I post. 

Continuing to lie, I see. Again, I accept your numbers as fact without question til the end when all I asked for was the source. I know you use stats and I know you generally have a source. I wanted to see your source. Still haven't provided it, btw.

(08-30-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Apparently, you are trying to claim that some 3rd-and-25 conversions are not rare, but you never explain which ones these are.  

No, I'm claiming that some 3rd-and-25+ conversions are not the result of luck - specifically the Bengals 3rd-and-27 in the Chiefs game - but I acknowledge that some may be. If you'd like to me confirm which ones are the result of luck, please post the video and I will do so.

(08-30-2022, 02:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You can't point out "luck" on a video of a kid making a full court basketball shot.  Therefore you can't base your argument on my inability to point out "luck" in the video of the play in question.  

Yes, I can. We're not talking about a kid making a full court basketball shot. We're talking about professional football players completing a pass they've completed many times before and will complete many times in the years to come. The only thing about this play that is different is the fact that it occurred on 3rd and 27. 

Your argument fails because you're attempting to comparing 2 different things; you're attempting to compare an orange to when an apple was picked off the tree. The luck part of the kid making the shot is the kid making the shot. Not when he made the shot. You're trying to compare an action to the time of an action. I'm comparing 2 actions. The kid making the shot is lucky because unless it's a shot he routinely makes, then it's clearly due mainly to luck. The action of the professional football players is the completion of the pass. A pass they've done many times over the course of last season. Ergo, it's the result of skill not luck.