09-04-2022, 04:44 PM
(09-03-2022, 02:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Good catch. Yes, 5.5 is correct. My database was excluding records and I am not sure, but I fixed it. With penalties included, Cincinnati allowed 5.59 yards per play in the regular season. I am not sure if PFR rounds or goes to the first decimal, but I have Cincinnati's relative ranking at 22nd. Teams 19-22 all are 5.5x, so I'm assuming we have some rounding discrepancies. Regardless, 5.5 is what they allowed in the regular season.
In the post-season, they allowed 5.58. This is what I mean by they were still mediocre on a play-by-play basis. There wasn't a significant improvement here. In turnovers, however, there was. Thus, they performed slightly better in the playoffs as unit.
The reason why I harp on yards per play is because of how important it is for measuring a defenses ability to play consistently. Yards per play moves tightly with points per game. You can fairly accurately predict points allowed by simply looking at yards-per-play. Here are some examples...
Buffalo Bills - 4.62 yards per play. Insert this into our formula y = 5.62454 * 4.62 + -8.6724 and we get 17.2 points per game. They averaged 16.5 ppg in real life.
Cincinnati Bengals - 5.59 yards per play. y = 5.62454 * 5.59 + -8.6724 and we get 22.76. Cincinnati averaged 21.05 points per game.
Some of the PPG measures are slightly different than what you'll find on PFR because I am only using the points that the defense allowed, so not kick/punt return TDs, pick sixes, fumble return TDs etc.
Hell, another even better method is to use Expected Points Allowed. This is more accurate, even. Doing all of the statistical dance, you can predict over half of the leagues PPG to within less than one point. If you raise that to two points, you have 24 teams. If we start the beginning of the conversation again, Cincinnati was ranked 13th in the league by EPA during the regular season. During the playoffs, they were 7th out of 14. However, their raw value did improve...due to turnovers. Not only did they get several of them, but they were incredibly TIMELY.
All of this to say, Cincinnati on a play-by-play basis was still a mediocre defense in the playoffs. They notched up their turnovers and snagged several very important turnovers. Hell, they intercepted Carr at the goalline, Tannehill on a potential game winning drive and Mahomes in OT. Those turnovers are about as clutch as they come. The defense was clutch when they needed to be and were the driving force of a SB berth. Sometimes, it is more about making the splash plays than it is about being consistently good and that playoff run proved that out. My original post is just a quick summation of all of this; Cincinnati only improved in the turnovers department, which yes, did lower their points allowed. However, there is no evidence to suggest that Cincinnati is going to keep that improvement in turnovers going. I am optimistic with another year in the scheme that they can improve their per play metrics and be a better defense overall this season.
The defense improved in completion %, YPPA, 3rd %, QB Rating, Turnovers, and Points allowed during the playoffs. It wasn't a defense based solely off turnovers.
