09-05-2022, 05:27 PM
(09-04-2022, 10:22 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: A few things here...Three Things
Yes, they did. However, this isn't as important. It is the weakest portion of the passer rating formula. I'll touch on this a little more towards the end of the post.
We are talking a marginal difference. A 3.5% boost (7.15 in the regular season, 6.90 in the postseason). If you want to hang your hat on that, man, be my guest.
Again, a marginal difference. 41.6% in the regular season and 39.6% in the postseason. If you want to point your finger at that, go ahead. Just a heads up, that is a difference of one stop. The Bengals defense was 21-53 on third downs, or 39.6%. If the Bengals were 22-53 instead, they are now at 41.5%.
Yes....due to turnovers. They had eight interceptions. Earlier I mentioned that I am not too concerned with completion percentage because it can be very misleading and doesn't tell you much. A QB can complete a bunch of passes but they may not be beneficial. They may just be short little dump-offs and not produce much. For instance, the Bengals defense allowed a passer rating of 93.1 during the regular season, good for 15th. During the postseason, they allowed a passer rating of 77.4. That is fantastic! However, the reason was due to the absurd amount of interceptions they nabbed. They more than doubled their interception percentage. So, back to that 77.4 passer rating in the postseason. The Bengals had a 2.1% interception percentage in the regular season, and a 5% interception percentage in the playoffs. What would that playoff passer rating look like if they instead played to regular season form? To be clear with the math, 157 attempts * 0.021 = 3.2, or 3 interceptions.
A 91 passer rating. If the Bengals didn't intercept eight passes, they would have registered a 91 passer rating against. So, that marginal improvement in YPA and boost in completion percentage doesn't matter much. It was the turnovers. To put it into even further context, Cincinnati's eight interceptions is tied for the 3rd best mark since 1999, trailing teams like the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Buccaneers.
Yep and yep. Because of the turnovers. Listen, Cincinnati's defense was HUGE reason that they made the Super Bowl. Not only did they get turnovers like crazy, but they were so, so important. There was a critical turnover in nearly every game. It was so incredibly clutch. But on a PLAY-BY-PLAY BASIS, they were still a mediocre defense. They just completely ramped up their turnover game, and made all of them count. That's a big part of defensive play. My concern is that turnovers are volatile and that what they did in the playoffs likely isn't sustainable, which was the whole point of my original post. However, I believe with an extra season in the system, they guys can play better and become a better defense. I'm not down on them at all.
The 1 extra third down stop was against the Titans. If Sample doesn't make that stop against Ryan T then the probability of the Titans winning the game would have gone way up. That one stop was crucial to our Superbowl trip.
Secondly The Turnovers the Bengals forced were not flukey Turnovers. It wasn't like the 2005 defense when they were just getting lucky INTs. Tight coverage was the main reason for the turnovers in the playoffs.
Thirdly here is what our playoff stats would have looked like if it was done in the regular season.
% 4th
YPPA-9th
3Rd %- 15th
INT 1st
QB Rating 4th
Actual regular season stats
% 26th
YPPA- 20th
3rd %- 22nd
INT- 15th
QB Rating-18th
It's also important to note that The Bengals were playing three top QBs in Mahomes, Carr, and Stafford. So of course their numbers are not going to be dominant.
