09-05-2022, 06:01 PM
(09-05-2022, 05:27 PM)J24 Wrote: Three Things
The 1 extra third down stop was against the Titans. If Sample doesn't make that stop against Ryan T then the probability of the Titans winning the game would have gone way up. That one stop was crucial to our Superbowl trip.
Secondly The Turnovers the Bengals forced were not flukey Turnovers. It wasn't like the 2005 defense when they were just getting lucky INTs. Tight coverage was the main reason for the turnovers in the playoffs.
Thirdly here is what our playoff stats would have looked like if it was done in the regular season.
% 4th
YPPA-9th
3Rd %- 15th
INT 1st
QB Rating 4th
Actual regular season stats
% 26th
YPPA- 20th
3rd %- 22nd
INT- 15th
QB Rating-18th
It's also important to note that The Bengals were playing three top QBs in Mahomes, Carr, and Stafford. So of course their numbers are not going to be dominant.
You can’t just choose a random third down stop and say “yep, this is the one, and it is why we went to the Super Bowl.” It could have been any of the stopped third downs that converted. Maybe Las Vegas converts an extra third down and kicks a FG, the Bengals still win. Who knows? My point is that you’re pointing to a one stop difference and saying “yeah, they improved.” It’s a marginal, weak argument.
I never said the interceptions were flukey, so I don’t know why you’re making that point. I said they were volatile and inconsistent. They are. It’s not a trend that is likely to continue. Look, if you want to point your fingers at a handful of metrics where they marginally improved and say that they weren’t a defense that thrived off of turnovers, then be my guest. We obviously disagree. Cincinnati improved their interception ratio by 138% in the playoffs; they improved the rest of these metrics you’re pointing to by less than 4%.
Finally, your projected rankings. I am not personally concerned with completion percentage. The relative YPA ranking is a big jump, but the statistical difference is very minor. The biggest difference is the interceptions. The Bengals were 18th in the regular season in passer rating. If their playoff performance stayed the exact same but instead of the eight interceptions, they had three (the math is in my original post), they go from 18th to 15th. They thrived on turnovers. I’m not sure what else to say.
So, agree to disagree. I think we both agree that the unit could do great things this season and I’m really looking forward to this weekend.
