09-22-2022, 06:16 PM
(09-22-2022, 06:06 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Trying to be realistic in this thread and not a homer.
Of all the 0-2 teams in the NFL, ESPN ranks us as having the best chance to still make the playoffs.
For some reason, even though I'm logged in to both, it's letting me view the article on my phone but not on my computer, so I'll try and copy and I'm posting from my computer.
Number five on their list is the Falcons, Panthers are fourth, the Raiders are third, the Titans are second, and we're first.
I understand our offensive line was horrible, which I think it's time to get rid of Pollack and Zac has to be less predictable, or at least one of those two.
We got demolished in the pass rush in the first two games and Burrow got killed, but let's also not forget that the Steelers have Watt and the Cowboys have Parsons and they're two of the best pass rushers in the league.
In the opening game, we beat the Steelers if Harris doesn't get hurt or we had a decent backup long snapper.
The article mentions how Burrow's QBR is 97.0 when he gets the ball out within two seconds of the snap, which is second best in the league, but then falls to 42.7 beyond two seconds, which is 25. It's no surprise that it's that low because he's usually on the run, getting hit, the ball's getting tipped, or Burrow has defenders up in his grill.
The article suggests maybe going back to five-wide sets, which Burrow was deadly with in college. It doesn't seem logical to take away blockers, but Burrow might be more comfortable and would have more options to get rid of the ball to if the pressure comes that fast.
It says a running game might be another solution to help but Mixon hasn't been great, either. I also blame Taylor's play calling for this because I've seen him run counters and delayed handoffs to Mixon when Mixon's strength seems to be to give him the ball running full speed to hit the hole quickly and then make people miss. I'm not saying dives up the middle every play but even the off-tackle plays take too long. Make the backers decide to play the run or hesitate and let Mixon get 4 to 5 yards a pop.
It says that the Jets have a bad defense, so this might be the perfect solution to jumpstart our offense but then also mentions that their strength is their pass rush.
If we can pull out a win against the Jets, I think it will give us confidence and then we have a streak of games that are all winnable.
Who-Dey!
Cincinnati definitely still has hope, but it is faint and they need a turnaround quick. This is how quickly it escalates. These percentages provided are historical numbers, but these are the percentage chance of a playoff berth based on starting record...
0-2: 11.3%. Since 1990, when the NFL expanded to a 12 team format, 265 teams have started 0-2. Only 30 of those teams have made the playoffs.
0-3: 3.4%. The timeline I am finding is a little different here, but this is since 1980. I know, I know, but I am not aggregating this data myself and am relying on other peoples work. Since 1980, 176 teams have started 0-3 and only six have made the playoffs.
0-4: <1%. I don't need to know how many teams have started 0-4 to calculate this. Only one 0-4 team has ever made the NFL playoffs - the 1992 Chargers.
Cincinnati has slightly better odds given there are 17 games and the AFC North is still within reach so early, but a loss to the Jets would be absolutely brutal. Personally, I would call this a must-win game.
