09-27-2022, 04:11 PM
(09-27-2022, 04:06 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Anything that can change in the course of 1 play isn't reliable. Large data sets are reliable. Momentum is something you can theoretically control based on how successful your play calling (and execution) is.
Just as an anecdotal side note, when i'm watching the game and involved in the GD threads, it seems as soon as a play or two goes against the Bengals, the sky-is-falling crowd ramps up and i can literally feel the mood change. Like, if i continue to stay in the thread, the Bengals will continue to play bad and lose. Of course that's not going to happen. How i feel or what people type in the heat of the moment has nothing to do with the game.
The funny part (to me) is that momentum isn't really a tangible thing. You kind of know it when you see it but it's more of a made up term to explain a series of events. It's based on the law of large numbers. Anything that's quantifiable--a series of good plays or bad--is not going to stay that way for long. Things even out over time...so momentum is based on math, just like analytics, just like everything.
I don't engage in the momentum argument often because it has never really gotten me anywhere, but there have been studies into it that provide evidence it is more myth than fact. The way I look at it is either that it just doesn't exist whatsoever, or the effects of it are so weak that it isn't worth talking about.
