Oil

[Stewy]

(10-05-2022, 09:59 PM)GMDino Wrote: The ANNOUNCEMENT is what will cause the issues.  Plus another two million a day op top of whatever shortfalls there are.

No.  The announcement won't cause long term issues.  Just short term.  The market is already bullish and really hasn't even reacted to the announcement.  It ha Biden reacting, but there is almost nothing the POTUS can do, except to continue to erode our energy security by continuing to drain the SPR, but even this is like trying to add to the ocean by pee'ing in it.   It's simply math.  If the announcement comes to fruition then that is 100 million barrels off the market by the end of November.....they US releasing ` million barrels per day between now and then only cover 50 million barrels.  This bandaid is finite and the market knows it, which is why the SPR release all along has been politics and not effective policy.

Here's Great Britain's reaction to energy security, directly opposed to us here in the US - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Launches-Massive-Oil-Gas-Licensing-Round.html  <---This is an effective long term ENERGY SECURITY policy, when combined with investment in renewables, for pushing into the energy transition.

It's what OPEC does, not what they SAY that matters.  How much they produce and sell can be measured with some confidence.  They can talk all they want, but they know and I thought I had shared here, that talking only does so much.  Oil is a commodity but LONG TERM prices are controlled by multitudes of measurable factors, which filters through talking and posturing. 

As such, Russia's part of of this is just posturing, as they have been losing market share for a while due to the war and sanctions.  Any REAL reduction will likely come from Saudi Arabia, and any real reduction will be evident on a month to month basis, to which the market will react.