10-09-2022, 07:16 PM
(10-09-2022, 06:24 PM)Nepa Wrote: Did analytics say they should go for it? A little over 1 minute left, fourth and 2, Browns with no time outs, about five yards from Browns' field goal range if they don't make the first down, and the Browns probably unable to use their running game if punt to the other end of the field since no time outs. The Chargers going for it was about the only chance the Browns had. I can't imagine analytics said the play in that case is to try and get a first down.
The 4th down model I follow gave it a “YOU HAD BETTER GO FOR THIS” classification. The reason being that if they convert, the game is immediately over, and they were given a 70% chance of converting. If they punted, they had a 77% chance of winning. If they went for it and failed, they had a 60% chance of winning.
The math essentially worked out to a choice between a guaranteed victory with high probability of conversion, or losing 17 win percentage points. The increase in win probability outweighed the loss in win probability, so that is why that classification was given to it.
