10-09-2022, 07:19 PM
(10-09-2022, 07:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The 4th down model I follow gave it a “YOU HAD BETTER GO FOR THIS” classification. The reason being that if they convert, the game is immediately over, and they were given a 70% chance of converting. If they punted, they had a 77% chance of winning. If they went for it and failed, they had a 60% chance of winning.
The math essentially worked out to a choice between a guaranteed victory with high probability of conversion, or losing 17 win percentage points. The increase in win probability outweighed the loss in win probability, so that is why that classification was given to it.
I have to say that is quite interesting.
