10-27-2022, 09:41 PM
(10-27-2022, 09:18 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Well, while we're being racist let me ask if you think the Hispanic trend towards the GOP is a general thing or do you think it's more of a confounding/short-term variable given Trump's level of support from groups that tend towards lessened levels of higher education?
Hispanics within the USA have the lowest level of education by ethnicity, but the GOP may have made more inroads with that demographic that go beyond Trump.
My friend, if you were talking to a current day liberal this post would have melted their mind and had them calling Al Sharpton on you. But, I completely understand what you're asking and will answer honestly. I've pointed out for years, well before 2016, that it was inevitable that Hispanics would start to trend GOP if the Dems continued their leftward shift. Now, I would point out that Hispanics only accurately describes Spanish speaking people, so it technically includes Spaniards as well (as an aside there was a hilarious take from some Twitter/TikTok idiot that white people were not allowed to speak Spanish because it's not "their language"), so this omits some people most would consider part of that category, e.g. Brazilians and people from Belize.
That being said there are several, general, character traits that tend to apply to Hispanic families that don't mesh especially well with the current Dem positions. They tend to abhor socialism/communism, as the country their family fled to come to the US was either heavily one or the other, or they have relatives who suffered under such regimes. They tend to be more religious than the US as a whole, and within that trend Catholic. Hence abortion is an issue in which they are firmly in the GOP zone. They also tend to be traditionalists with a strong sense of family, which fits nicely with conservative "family values".
An absolutely huge one, and the cause of the current acceleration of Hispanic GOP support IMO, is they also tend to come from areas that were highly corrupt and in which criminals tended to act with impunity. In this area especially the Dems are going to hemorrhage Hispanic voters in the next decade or so. The damage done to the criminal justice system, and law enforcement, by Dem overreactions and, in some cases open disdain for both, is going to make Hispanics trend more and more towards the GOP. Of course, that assumes something doesn't happen to radically change that, but that's always a consideration.
Quite literally, the only Dem issue in which there is solid Hispanic support is immigration. Even on this issue there are sizeable numbers of Hispanics that are much more vehemently against illegal immigration than White people or other ethnic groups. I know hundreds of Hispanic people very well and they trend anti-illegal immigration about 80-20% against.
So, the more extreme the Dems get on the above issues the more they are going to lose Hispanic support, and in a two party system that support really only has one outlet destination. While the above issues start to dilute the further away you get from the first generation immigrant they will remain strong enough to not significantly alter what I'm claiming.
Full disclosure, I am not Hispanic and would never claim to speak for that group. But I have conversations with Hispanic people almost every day, I've learned a ton about Central and Southern American cultures, and what most people know about them in this country is a tiny fraction of what there is to know. My predictions on Hispanic political leanings have been rather solid to date and I see nothing to indicate that is about to change.
