12-03-2022, 04:21 PM
The Chiefs are only going to have a finite number of possessions. If four of them end in field goal attempts (meaning they could be missed), then the remaining possessions (maybe 4-5 more?) can end in either TDs or nothing. On balance that probably equates to about 3.5/4 expected field goals made (~11 points, or a 9 vs. 12 split). If you give them two TDs in the other possessions, they'll score approximately 23-27 points. That's not too bad, but it's not "good" either. So the value of the FGs option really comes down to what one expects individually. I think holding them to a bunch of kicks probably signals a strong overall defensive performance, but it's not a sure bet.
I also don't think being +1 in turnovers would be all that meaningful. It would certainly help, but that's just a one possession turn. I don't care much about the yardage-based options. They are very circumstantial and could inflate even in games that go against the player in question.
I also don't think being +1 in turnovers would be all that meaningful. It would certainly help, but that's just a one possession turn. I don't care much about the yardage-based options. They are very circumstantial and could inflate even in games that go against the player in question.
