Jamarr Chase getting hurt was possibly the best thing to happen to the offense

[CJD]

(12-07-2022, 11:42 AM)Housh Wrote: Does Burrow get to this level of play if Chase plays every game and the training wheels were never taken off?

Imo i don’t think so

Those games were also important for Zac Taylor. God forbid we lost a guy later in the season and now we have to make a Chase-less gameplan in a playoff game with no tape on how to succeed without Chase.

I couldn't agree more. It seemed like, prior to Chase's injury, there was still that thought in the back of both Burrow's and Taylor's mind, "Just throw it to Chase. We don't need to worry about anything other than throwing it to Chase."

Prior to his injury, Chase had 47 receptions on 74 targets. That is a catch percentage of 63.5% and would be 36th in the NFL among WRs with at least 30 receptions. 

For reference, Tee Higgins is at 70.6%, Boyd is at 69.2%, Hurst is at 76.2% and Perine and Mixon (granted, RB receptions aren't really comparable because they're mostly check downs) are 80% and 77.4%, respectively.

Among all Cincinnati players with at least one target this year, Chase was 10th out of 15 in catch percentage, with only Irwin (8 rec on 13 tgt), Traveon Willliams (1 rec on 2 tgt), Mike Thomas (2 receptions on 10 tgt...Jesus Christ, Mike...), Stanley Morgan (0 for 1) and Devin Asiasi (0 for 2) behind him.

Yet he, through those 7 games, had the most targets on the team by a fairly comfortable margin (Higgins was second with just 44.)

I know Chase is a big play receiver and big play receivers often have lower catch percentages than possession receivers. For instance, AJ Brown had essentially the same catch rate as Chase with a 63.54% (through 12 games, rather than Ja'Marr's 7), but then there are big play receivers like Justin Jefferson (14.5 ypc, 69.3% catch percentage) and Tyreek Hill (14.4 ypc, 74.4% catch percentage) that have high yards per catch and high catch percentages. That is what being a #1 receiver should look like, in my opinion, especially when your QB is completing over 69% of his passes.

Also worth noting, Tee Higgins (14.4) and Tyler Boyd (14.6 ypc) are averaging more yards per reception than Chase this year (13.0), so it isn't like his catch percentage was lower because he was being thrown nothing but low percentage bombs. AJ Brown, on the other hand, leads his team in yards per reception, which makes sense when you look at his low catch percentage.

So, to bring us back to the present, what does Chase do in the game against KC after missing 4 games? He gets 7 receptions on 8 targets, with his only "miss" being the one handed catch out of bounds.

What all of this data tells me, with every attempt at limiting bias and providing context and counter examples, is that the offense prior to Chase's injury relied on Chase making a play rather than consistently throwing to the open man. His low catch percentage tied with his relatively low ypc (relative to the other receivers on his own team in addition to star players with similar catch percentage) is an indication that his low catch percentage was not a result of receiving nothing but low percentage deep balls. He was simply being thrown to when he was not open.

Once he returned, his first game back was a nearly perfect game for him (7 of 8 with the one incompletion being caught but narrowly out of bounds) and Burrow. 

I'm excited to watch this offense moving forward, because losing Chase for a month did cause the offense to evolve and I think we are better off for it.