12-15-2022, 05:49 PM
(12-15-2022, 04:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: In the modern NFL, once a franchise QB is first available to get a contract extension, you have to give him one or you're showing you have zero commitment to that player and are likely going to move on from them. Look at starting QBs drafted the previous 5 years when they became eligible for an extension with their team...
Extension After Year 3:
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Deshaun Watson
Kyler Murray
No Extension After Year 3:
Mitchell Trubisky
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Lamar Jackson
Daniel Jones
...so next offseason Burrow needs to get an extension. Cap rising or not, you can't treat your franchise QB as a lesser of other franchise QBs and expect good things. You can be pretty positive that Herbert, Hurts, and Tua are all getting extensions this offseason. That'd make the situation even worse than Lamar's with Baltimore, even more so because Burrow showed he can actually win in the playoffs.
Same thing happening with Higgins and the WR position. Marquise Brown, Deebo, AJ Brown, Metcalf, and Renfrow all got extensions this offseason after their 3rd year. It's a matter of optics, commitment, and getting paid. It's why I think there's a decent-ish chance that Higgins gets traded this offseason, the go-to move right now is for a big time player to hold-in without a contract extension, hoping for one or for a trade to get one elsewhere. It's why we saw Devante, Tyreek, and AJ Brown all get traded. Going to be hard though to pay Higgins when Burrow is going to get a mountain of money this coming offseason and then the next offseason you're going to need to back up a brink trucks to Chase.
Yes, I get that, but what you, and a great many others don't seem to get, IS THAT EVEN IF YOU SIGN AN EXTENSION, IT MAY NOT KICK IN UNTIL YEAR 6. Unless something changed in the 2020 CBA of which I am unaware (which is certainly possible) regarding 5th year options and extensions. If that is the case, I am gonna feel (and look) like an enormous boob. But here goes anyway. Here is where I am coming from.
Signing the extension does not necessarily mean the cap increases goes up in year 5 (which is 2024 for Burrow). Yes, you give them the extension ASAP to show them love, but you also exercise the 5th year option. The extension kicks in Year 6. One of the main benefits (for the teams) is the 5th year option. It's another year of tram control at a relatively controlled price, before the players gets bag with the extension. The teams do not forfeit that when the player signs an extension. Taking the examples you provided:
Mahomes was drafted in 2017.
Year 1 = 2017
Year 2 = 2018
Year 3 = 2019; extension signed July 2020
Year 4 = 2020
Year 5 = 2021
Year 6 = 2022; extension kicks in
His Year 5 cap number (2021, last year) was $7.4 mil. This year, year 6,the extension kicked in, cap hit of $35.8 mil.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/
Same exact thing with Allen. First year was 2018. 2019 year 2. 2020 year 3. 2021 year 4. 2022 (this year) is year 5. His cap hit (7th pick) for his 5th year option is $16.37 mil. NEXT YEAR, year 6, the extension kicks in, cap hit of $39.77 mil. Extension signed in August of 2021, after year 3.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/josh-allen-25102/
Same thing with Murray. Drafted in 2019. This is year 4. Signed his extension after year 3, BUT IT DOESN'T KICK IN UNTIL YEAR 6. Next year, 2024, year 5, the cap hit is $16 mil. In year 6, $51.8 mil.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/kyler-murray-29036/
Watson is in a bit of a unique situation, but this is his 5th year, his cap hit is $9 mil this year. The extension kicks in in year 6, $54.9 mil.
So, for Burrow:
2020: year 1
2021: year 2
2022: year 3; extension signed
2023: year 4
2024: year 5
2025: year 6, extension kicks in.
Burrow was a #1 pick, and in a later year, so his 5th year # will be higher (as will the extension), but it won't hit the books until 2025, and Chase's not until 2026, no matter when he signs his extension.
Again, unless something changed in the CBA between 2019 & 2020 (there was a new one in 2020), what holds true for Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Watson will hold for Burrow. Year 6.
