12-15-2022, 09:29 PM
I have deliberately left the 1-seed out of the poll, because it would be a pretty obvious choice were it available. Technically some people might decline that option if they think a bye week would disrupt momentum, but generally I would expect the poll to be pointless with it. So to be clear:
I think the Bengals are still very much alive for the 1-seed and the 2-seed.
So if we set that aside and consider two other possibilities that I would call comparable: the 3-seed and the 5-seed, given the current playoff postures of teams in the mix, how do we feel about them? It's possible this poll still goes the "obvious" direction by favoring the better seed, so I will expand at the end of the post.
If the Bengals win out and the Chiefs win out, the Bengals are guaranteed to finish with the 2-seed.
The 2-seed hosts the worst wild card team (7-seed) in the first round (likely the Jets, Chargers, Patriots, or maaaybe the Dolphins).
In the second round, they host the other highest-seeded winning team in the divisional round (likely the Bills).
In the conference championship, they go to Arrowhead or otherwise host anyone else.
If the Bengals win the AFC North, but lose in week 17 to the Bills, then they most likely finish with the 3-seed.
The 3-seed hosts the 6-seed in the first round (likely the Jets, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins, or maaaybe the Ravens).
In the second round, they travel to the 2-seed (either the Bills or Chiefs) or otherwise host anyone else if the 2-seed gets dropped in the WC round.
In the conference championship, they travel to the Bills or Chiefs or otherwise host anyone else.
If the Bengals don't win the AFC North, then they most likely finish as the 5-seed.
The 5-seed travels to the 4-seed in the WC round (most likely the Titans, outside chance of the Jaguars).
In the second round, they most likely travel to the 2-seed (probably the Bills or Chiefs). If the 2-seed gets upset, then they travel to the 3-seed (probably the Ravens).
In the conference championship, they're most likely on the road anywhere barring a sequence of major upsets.
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If this feels very obvious to you, that's fine.
The real question lies in the first round. Would you rather receive an easier first round in exchange for a tougher road after that? I have seen a number of people indicate that they would love the 5-seed, but not necessarily on this forum.
My own perspective, personally, is not quite the obvious one. 1-seed > 2-seed > 5-seed > 3-seed
I do think the question is interesting enough to be worth asking though. I cannot deny that opening the playoffs @Tennessee has a clear appeal, and the 5-seed achieves that. It might be preferable to hosting the Dolphins or Chargers, for example, since they can score in a heartbeat. Clearly it would be most ideal to just get a top 2 seed and put it to bed.
I think the Bengals are still very much alive for the 1-seed and the 2-seed.
So if we set that aside and consider two other possibilities that I would call comparable: the 3-seed and the 5-seed, given the current playoff postures of teams in the mix, how do we feel about them? It's possible this poll still goes the "obvious" direction by favoring the better seed, so I will expand at the end of the post.
If the Bengals win out and the Chiefs win out, the Bengals are guaranteed to finish with the 2-seed.
The 2-seed hosts the worst wild card team (7-seed) in the first round (likely the Jets, Chargers, Patriots, or maaaybe the Dolphins).
In the second round, they host the other highest-seeded winning team in the divisional round (likely the Bills).
In the conference championship, they go to Arrowhead or otherwise host anyone else.
If the Bengals win the AFC North, but lose in week 17 to the Bills, then they most likely finish with the 3-seed.
The 3-seed hosts the 6-seed in the first round (likely the Jets, Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins, or maaaybe the Ravens).
In the second round, they travel to the 2-seed (either the Bills or Chiefs) or otherwise host anyone else if the 2-seed gets dropped in the WC round.
In the conference championship, they travel to the Bills or Chiefs or otherwise host anyone else.
If the Bengals don't win the AFC North, then they most likely finish as the 5-seed.
The 5-seed travels to the 4-seed in the WC round (most likely the Titans, outside chance of the Jaguars).
In the second round, they most likely travel to the 2-seed (probably the Bills or Chiefs). If the 2-seed gets upset, then they travel to the 3-seed (probably the Ravens).
In the conference championship, they're most likely on the road anywhere barring a sequence of major upsets.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If this feels very obvious to you, that's fine.
The real question lies in the first round. Would you rather receive an easier first round in exchange for a tougher road after that? I have seen a number of people indicate that they would love the 5-seed, but not necessarily on this forum.
My own perspective, personally, is not quite the obvious one. 1-seed > 2-seed > 5-seed > 3-seed
I do think the question is interesting enough to be worth asking though. I cannot deny that opening the playoffs @Tennessee has a clear appeal, and the 5-seed achieves that. It might be preferable to hosting the Dolphins or Chargers, for example, since they can score in a heartbeat. Clearly it would be most ideal to just get a top 2 seed and put it to bed.
