2023 Salary Cap set

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-31-2023, 12:19 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: The salary cap will double in the next 5-7 years.  If the deals are set up the right way, we will have no issues extending everyone that we want.

If the salary cap doubles in the next 5-7 years, so will player salaries.

In 2020, there were only 2 QBs making more than $35m/yr and only 1 making at least $40m/yr.
In 2022 there are 9 QBs making at least $40m/yr and 5 making at least $45m/yr.
In just 2023 that number is going to jump up even higher with Burrow, Hurts, Herbert, and possibly Lamar all getting deals.

Just because the cap shoots up doesn't mean players demands won't shoot up too. 

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It's also not just a matter of cap space but guaranteed money. All that guaranteed money has to be liquid cash put into escrow. Based on the normal deals for the levels they're getting paid... Whatever contract Burrow gets, likely 40-60% of it will be fully guaranteed and need to go into escrow. Higgins and Chase will both likely also get 40-50% of their contracts fully guaranteed. For Wilson that number is more like 30-50%.

You figure something in the realm of....
Burrow: 10yr/$500m
Higgins: 4yr/$100m
Chase: 5yr/$150m
Wilson 4yr/$60m

That's likely somewhere between $318m on the low end and $470m on the high end of guaranteed money (using rough ballpark estimates) for 4 players that the Browns/Blackburns have to have liquid to go into escrow. It's a large part of why they've always been so tight on giving guarantees in the past. The team is their only source of money. The ~$120m/yr on average will be tough on the cap, but arguably the guaranteed money they need to get together for that is the harder part.

Also when you see teams moving numbers around to reduce cap hits and push them further down the line? That's done by using restructured signing bonuses, which is giving players MORE cash upfront and just making it count for cap purposes in later years. It requires a pretty decent amount of liquid cash being thrown around to make work.

...Those estimation numbers are also assuming you extend Burrow before Hurts/Herbert/Lamar all get their deals and bump up the price of a top QB contract, and you extend Higgins before the Vikings extend Jefferson and absolutely reset the top of the WR market.