02-06-2023, 12:11 AM
The way I see it, the Bengals have at least 2 more years before Burrow's or Chase's huge extensions kick in. Even if Burrow signs a 10 year, 500 million dollar contract this off season, his cap hit in 2023 and 2024 will likely be relatively small. For context, Mahomes signed his extension before the 2020 season and his 2020 and 2021 cap hits (his 4th and 5th years in the league) were 5.4M and 7.4M, respectively. Similarly, Josh Allen's cap hits in 2021 and 2022, his 4th and 5th years in the league, following signing his extension before the 2021 season, were 10.2M and 16.4M.
Their 6th year, in both cases, was where the huge money came in, 39.8M for Allen in 2023 and 35.8M for Mahomes in 2022.
So Joe Burrow's contract extension will likely be signed this off season, but it likely won't affect our cap situation until 2025.
I imagine the same will be the case for Chase's contract not kicking in until 2026.
For that reason, I truly believe we will have Higgins in Cincinnati for an absolute minimum of 2 more years. He is under his rookie contract in 2023 and we can franchise tag him for a relative bargain in 2024.
People are saying if we are offered a first round pick and a 2nd/3rd round pick (similar compensation as the Chiefs, Titans and Packers got for Hill, Brown and Adams, respectively), it would be a good deal to accept it. The problem is those situations are all different from what the Bengals have.
Hill was in the final year of his contract in 2022 and Patrick Mahomes' big numbers had already officially kicked in. They already had a highly paid receiver under contract (Kelce) and Hill was probably being pretty demanding behind the scenes, so they traded him.
AJ Brown was straight up holding out, so the Titans had to take what they could get since he wasn't willing to accept their contract offers.
And Adams literally took less money to not play for the Packers. He was also done.
Higgins wants to stay in Cincinnati and the Bengals do not respond to hold outs. Look at how they treated Bates. He threatened to hold out if he didn't sign a contract. He said he wouldn't play under the FT. But the Bengals waited him out and he ultimately played.
Carson Palmer threatened to retire if he wasn't traded, so the Bengals said "sounds good. Retire then."
They do not respond to strong arming.
So, in my opinion, if a team comes out and just blows our socks off with like 2 firsts, 2 day 2 picks for Higgins, sure take it. But if the best they can get is a measley 1st round pick (which, at best, you hope can just replace Higgins' production) and a 2nd round pick who'd probably be a depth lineman, there's no way the Bengals take that.
The next 2 seasons are the widest open window for the Super bowl because they are able to stock up on a ton of free agents with Burrow, Chase and Higgins on rookie contracts (Higgins for 1 of the 2 years, anyway). They won't compromise that Super Bowl window for a mere "meh" deal.
Higgins will be here until 2025.
Their 6th year, in both cases, was where the huge money came in, 39.8M for Allen in 2023 and 35.8M for Mahomes in 2022.
So Joe Burrow's contract extension will likely be signed this off season, but it likely won't affect our cap situation until 2025.
I imagine the same will be the case for Chase's contract not kicking in until 2026.
For that reason, I truly believe we will have Higgins in Cincinnati for an absolute minimum of 2 more years. He is under his rookie contract in 2023 and we can franchise tag him for a relative bargain in 2024.
People are saying if we are offered a first round pick and a 2nd/3rd round pick (similar compensation as the Chiefs, Titans and Packers got for Hill, Brown and Adams, respectively), it would be a good deal to accept it. The problem is those situations are all different from what the Bengals have.
Hill was in the final year of his contract in 2022 and Patrick Mahomes' big numbers had already officially kicked in. They already had a highly paid receiver under contract (Kelce) and Hill was probably being pretty demanding behind the scenes, so they traded him.
AJ Brown was straight up holding out, so the Titans had to take what they could get since he wasn't willing to accept their contract offers.
And Adams literally took less money to not play for the Packers. He was also done.
Higgins wants to stay in Cincinnati and the Bengals do not respond to hold outs. Look at how they treated Bates. He threatened to hold out if he didn't sign a contract. He said he wouldn't play under the FT. But the Bengals waited him out and he ultimately played.
Carson Palmer threatened to retire if he wasn't traded, so the Bengals said "sounds good. Retire then."
They do not respond to strong arming.
So, in my opinion, if a team comes out and just blows our socks off with like 2 firsts, 2 day 2 picks for Higgins, sure take it. But if the best they can get is a measley 1st round pick (which, at best, you hope can just replace Higgins' production) and a 2nd round pick who'd probably be a depth lineman, there's no way the Bengals take that.
The next 2 seasons are the widest open window for the Super bowl because they are able to stock up on a ton of free agents with Burrow, Chase and Higgins on rookie contracts (Higgins for 1 of the 2 years, anyway). They won't compromise that Super Bowl window for a mere "meh" deal.
Higgins will be here until 2025.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
