02-16-2023, 05:32 PM
(02-16-2023, 05:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 4 years is not a real number, let alone being able to put "at least" on it. How could it be at least 4 when that's literally the expected length of a WR contract? There's only 5 WRs in the NFL with a contract longer than 4 years and they're all at 5 years. So that would mean Higgins would have all of his cap hit in the very last year of his deal?
You're looking at 2 for Burrow and Higgins and 3 for Chase. Tops, barring the Bengals playing cap gymnastics with further extensions to kick the can down the road, which they don't have the liquid cash or the desire/creativity/FO personnel to pull off. There's plenty of recent WR extensions out there that it's much more likely for it to be 1 for Higgins and 2 for Burrow and Chase.
Tyreek Hill extended in 2022, cap hit is at $31.5m in 2023. DJ Moore extended in 2022, cap hit is at $25m in 2023. Stefon Diggs extended in 2022, cap hit is at $20.3m in 2023. DK Metcalf and Davante Adams are 2022 extensions that you could look at for being 2 years instead of 1, but even then they're at $13.7m and $14.7m, which while isn't the huge hits they'll have in 2024, still isn't chump change, and sure enough in 2024 (after 2 years) they're at $24.5m and $25.4m cap hits.
Even before they reach the full huge cap hits, it will still be much more than it currently is for the three of them. You can make it for 2 years ('23 and '24), which sure, that's nice to have 2 years of going for it, but that path leads to being the Rams or Bucs. That's not a completely bad thing, they both had SB teams... it's just that I don't know about you but I would much more rather be the Chiefs than the Rams or Bucs.
"How could it be at least 4".
This is easy, I said all 3 will not hit their max at the same time for at least 4 years, maybe longer, most likely never.
Seems to me that you are not taking into account specific bonuses and proration...?
Consider this:
Tee's big cap hit will come 1st.
YR1, 2025 - his 1st year base will be the lowest as is standard along with the prorated signing bonus. Tee most likely wont hit his highest cap number until the last year of his contract, 2028 (assuming 4 years).
Joe's will come 2nd and hopefully take the longest time to hit the 50M mark.
Y1, 2026. Joe's 50M cap hit is likely to come in 2029 at the soonest and 2032 at the latest.
Josh Allen didnt hit his 50M cap hit until YR3-2023 of the extension, Mahomes wont hit it until YR6-2027.
I can stop right here as Tee's last year would be before Joe's max cap hit of 50M or whatever.
Chase
Y1-2027, he likely signs a 5 year deal with the max salary and prorated amount in YR5, so 2032.
