04-20-2023, 08:21 PM
(04-20-2023, 12:40 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The flip side of that however is that there is no one else for the defense to really focus on.
He is the threat, and even knowing that and having coverage rolled his way, and a mid-level QB, the guy is still putting up the best numbers in football.
Line him up next to Higgins and Boyd with Burrow as his QB and I'd guess that his numbers would be even better with the less targets.
(04-20-2023, 01:37 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you're carrying the offense on your back and you're still unstoppable and always open, that's a positive, not a negative. Calvin Johnson had 102 more targets than anyone else on his team when he put up 1,964 yards. How does that make him worse? People were triple teaming him because they knew he was getting the ball and he still caught it.
Antonio Brown's highest receiving yard season he had 101 more targets than anyone else on the team.
Julio Jones' highest receiving yard season he had 106 more targets than anyone else on the team.
Jerry Rice's highest receiving yard season he had 66 more targets than anyone else on the team.
Randy Moss' highest receiving yard season he had 85 more targets than anyone else on the team.
Cooper Kupp when he won the receiver triple crown and carried his team to a SB win, had 102 more targets than anyone else on the team.
If a guy is open, you're going to keep throwing to him. If he's always open, he's going to end up with a huge workload. Of the top 15 targeted pass catchers last year, Justin Jefferson had the 2nd most separation on average according to NFL NGS. That's a weird paradox you're trying to pitch that a guy is worse because he's open more often, thus gets a higher workload.
I'm not saying that JJ is bad or not as good because he gets a ton of targets. I am saying that his numbers are incredibly high because there was only 1 other guy taking significant targets away.
Targets DO NOT = He was open.
Target DO = Opportunity to catch
Catch % trivia... Which one below is Justin Jefferson? NO CHEATING....
A: 69.6% (2022)
B: 76.3% (CAREER)
C: 75.9% (2021)
D: 67.9% (2022)
E: 57.3 (CAREER)
My point to the above %s is that sometimes guys are wide open and are given the ball, but sometimes they are forced the ball due to lack of better options. The ball has to go to somebody. That was my point about AJ Green. Andy had so much faith in him that he was going to be thrown the ball no matter what. I think JJ got a ton of targets and got open, yes... but he isn't out there just burning everyone to get so open it's a can't miss. His catch % is very good, but his opportunities to cathc are ABSOLUTELY mind blowing compared to his teammates. So, he gets huge stats.
