04-23-2023, 02:12 PM
I did finish my roundup at ESPN, NFL.COM, and CBS.
In the 20 mocks covered, only one non QB Tier 1 player (OLB Nolan Smith), fell to 28. He did so 4 times out of 20, but all thise were CBS Sports mocks, and frankly, I put the least amount of faith in those. Accordingly, I moved N. Snith to Tier 2.
Here is the breakdown of who we picked:
Tier 1: 0 picks
Tier 2: 14 picks: Mayer (5 picks), Forbes (2), Wright (2), Kincaid (2), Kancey (1), Banks (1), N. Smith (1).
Tier 3: 6 picks: Washington (1), LaPorta (1), Musgrave (1), Brents (1), Bresee (1), Harrison (1).
Tier 1 Breakdown: Player, Top 27%, Range, Avg (in top 27), Most Common
1. Young, 20/20, 100%, 1-3, 1.4, 1st
2. Stroud, 20/20, 100%, 1-11, 2.35, 2nd
3. Anderson, 20/20, 100%, 2-6, 3.6, 3rd
4. Wilson, 30/20, 100%, 3-11, 5.5, 5th
5. Carter, 20/20, 100%, 5-10, 5.95, 5th
6. Richardson, 19/20, 95%, 1-20 (+ >28 once), 6.05, 4th
7. Gonzalez, 20/20, 100%, 6-16, 9.05, tie 7th & 8th
8. Witherspoon, 20/20, 100%, 4-15, 9.15, 14th
9. Skoronski, 20/20, 100%, 7-20, 10.1, 9th
10. Levis, 18/20, 90%, 2-19 (+ 2 >28), 8.83, 4th
11. Johnson, 20/20, 100%, 7-19, 13.05, tie 9th, 11th, 13th
12. B. Jones: 20/20, 100%, 11-19, 14.8, 13th
13. Porter: 20/20, 100%, 14-24, 18.05, 16th
Again, none of these guys are gonna be an option for us. Zero out of 20 mocks have any of them availavle at 27, save for 2 that has Levis & 1 that had Richardson. We win't take them anyway & one of those mocks were BPA/board mocks that did not take need/predictions into account. Other than Skoronski getting to 20 once (someone is a short arm truther), Porter is the only one who gets to 20.
So what can we learn? For Darnell Wright hopefuls, it becomes pretty apoarent where the top OL prospects go most often. 9th (Chicago), 11th (Tennessee), and 13th (Jets). If you are rooting for OL to slide, then hope for developments at 9 (Carter slides?), 11 (QB available?), or 13th (Jets give up 1st in Packers trade or trade down in oreparation for it).
FWIW, 14th (NE), 17th (Pittsburgh), and 19th (Tampa) are also popular OL landing spots.
My tier 2 guys, whi I think will/should be gone when we pick but really would be great if they weren't consist of 12 guys: Robinson (RB), Smith-Njigba (WR), Flowers (WR), Kincaid (TE), Mayer (TE), Wright (OT), Van Ness (DE/DL), N. Smith (OLB/Edge), Murphy (DE), Kancey (DT), Forbes (CB), and Banks (CB).
In these 20 mocks, at least 1 of these guys was available every single time. But, the streak ended as I saw this morning that ESPN's Miller had all 25 of my Tier 1 & 2 guys gone, + Hooker & Johnston, before we picked. He had us taking DJ Turner. I'd be in trade down mode at that point.
Tier 2 Breakdown. 3 players never made it to us at 28. Van Ness (24th), Robinson (27th), and Smith-Njigba (22nd). All the others fell to us at least once. Here is the breakdown.
Rank, Player, Top 27%, Range, Avd when in 27, Most Common, # Bengals
14. Van Ness, 20/20, 100%, 6-24, 13.15, 10th, zero
15. Smith-Njigba, 20/20, 100%, 9-22, 14.9, 12th, zero
16. Robinson, 20/20, 100%, 8-27, 17.0, 10th, zero
17. Flowers, 19/20, 95%, 15-27 (+ 1 >28), 22.37, 25th, zero
18. Wright, 17/20, 85%, 9-28 (+ 1 >28), 16.88, 19th, TWICE
19. Kincaid, 17/20, 85%, 15-28 (+1 >28), 19.24, 15th, TWICE
20. Banks, 17/20, 85%, 16-28 (+2 > 28), 19.88, 17th, ONCE
21. N. Smith, 16/20, 80%, 8-28 (+3 >28), 13.88, tie 10th & 12th, ONCE
22. Murphy, 14/20, 70%, 8-27 (+6 >28), 17.0, tie 20th & 24th, zero
23. Kancey, 11/20, 55%, 6-28 (+8 >28), 19.91, 18th, ONCE
24. Mayer, 9/20, 45%, 15-28 (+5 >28), 24.78, 28th, FIVE
25. Forbes, 5/20, 25%, 22-28 (+14 > 28), 23.2, TWICE (1 at 24)
It looks to me like the Milker mock scenario, where all the Tier 2 guys are gone before we pick, is becoming more & more likely. Wright makes it to #28 3 times, but 2 were in March mocks. Flowers is gaining buzz as the #2 WR behind JAN, whose pro day erased all doubts about him falling. Van Ness & Robinson never make it to us, and neither does N. Smith outside the CBS bubble. Banks is also gaining steam.
Kincaid is picking up steam as TE1 to GB at 15, and intel suggests Mayer won't get by Dallas at 26 if Kincaid is gone. Numerically, Murphy, Kancey, Mayer, & Firbes are the best bets. Mayer is covered already. Kancey & Forbes are rising, and Murphy is all around solid with a great motor and 40 time.
We need 3 giys from tier 3 to get called before 28 to guarantee us a Tier 2 player. The most common names are two WRs: Addison (17/20) and Johnston (12/20). Only 2 WRs before 28 would be pretty unusual. Hyatt is picked prior to 28 5/20. The more WRs taken, the better! One mock even had Downs going.
Brian Branch also went top 27 12 times out if 20, matching Johnston..The two next most common, G Torrence (9/20) and QB Hooker (8/20). Hyatt's 5/20 and DT Bresee (4/20) are the next most common.
3 times: Sanders (LB), Simpson (LB), Smith (CB), Gibbs (RB), Schmitz ©.
2 times: Washington (TE), LaPorta (TE), Harrison (OT), Mauch (OL), M. Smith (DT), Avila (OG).
1 time: Downs (WR), Musgrave (TE), Bergeron (OT), Tippman (OC), White (DL), Adebewore (DL), Turner (CB).
We need 3.
In the 20 mocks covered, only one non QB Tier 1 player (OLB Nolan Smith), fell to 28. He did so 4 times out of 20, but all thise were CBS Sports mocks, and frankly, I put the least amount of faith in those. Accordingly, I moved N. Snith to Tier 2.
Here is the breakdown of who we picked:
Tier 1: 0 picks
Tier 2: 14 picks: Mayer (5 picks), Forbes (2), Wright (2), Kincaid (2), Kancey (1), Banks (1), N. Smith (1).
Tier 3: 6 picks: Washington (1), LaPorta (1), Musgrave (1), Brents (1), Bresee (1), Harrison (1).
Tier 1 Breakdown: Player, Top 27%, Range, Avg (in top 27), Most Common
1. Young, 20/20, 100%, 1-3, 1.4, 1st
2. Stroud, 20/20, 100%, 1-11, 2.35, 2nd
3. Anderson, 20/20, 100%, 2-6, 3.6, 3rd
4. Wilson, 30/20, 100%, 3-11, 5.5, 5th
5. Carter, 20/20, 100%, 5-10, 5.95, 5th
6. Richardson, 19/20, 95%, 1-20 (+ >28 once), 6.05, 4th
7. Gonzalez, 20/20, 100%, 6-16, 9.05, tie 7th & 8th
8. Witherspoon, 20/20, 100%, 4-15, 9.15, 14th
9. Skoronski, 20/20, 100%, 7-20, 10.1, 9th
10. Levis, 18/20, 90%, 2-19 (+ 2 >28), 8.83, 4th
11. Johnson, 20/20, 100%, 7-19, 13.05, tie 9th, 11th, 13th
12. B. Jones: 20/20, 100%, 11-19, 14.8, 13th
13. Porter: 20/20, 100%, 14-24, 18.05, 16th
Again, none of these guys are gonna be an option for us. Zero out of 20 mocks have any of them availavle at 27, save for 2 that has Levis & 1 that had Richardson. We win't take them anyway & one of those mocks were BPA/board mocks that did not take need/predictions into account. Other than Skoronski getting to 20 once (someone is a short arm truther), Porter is the only one who gets to 20.
So what can we learn? For Darnell Wright hopefuls, it becomes pretty apoarent where the top OL prospects go most often. 9th (Chicago), 11th (Tennessee), and 13th (Jets). If you are rooting for OL to slide, then hope for developments at 9 (Carter slides?), 11 (QB available?), or 13th (Jets give up 1st in Packers trade or trade down in oreparation for it).
FWIW, 14th (NE), 17th (Pittsburgh), and 19th (Tampa) are also popular OL landing spots.
My tier 2 guys, whi I think will/should be gone when we pick but really would be great if they weren't consist of 12 guys: Robinson (RB), Smith-Njigba (WR), Flowers (WR), Kincaid (TE), Mayer (TE), Wright (OT), Van Ness (DE/DL), N. Smith (OLB/Edge), Murphy (DE), Kancey (DT), Forbes (CB), and Banks (CB).
In these 20 mocks, at least 1 of these guys was available every single time. But, the streak ended as I saw this morning that ESPN's Miller had all 25 of my Tier 1 & 2 guys gone, + Hooker & Johnston, before we picked. He had us taking DJ Turner. I'd be in trade down mode at that point.
Tier 2 Breakdown. 3 players never made it to us at 28. Van Ness (24th), Robinson (27th), and Smith-Njigba (22nd). All the others fell to us at least once. Here is the breakdown.
Rank, Player, Top 27%, Range, Avd when in 27, Most Common, # Bengals
14. Van Ness, 20/20, 100%, 6-24, 13.15, 10th, zero
15. Smith-Njigba, 20/20, 100%, 9-22, 14.9, 12th, zero
16. Robinson, 20/20, 100%, 8-27, 17.0, 10th, zero
17. Flowers, 19/20, 95%, 15-27 (+ 1 >28), 22.37, 25th, zero
18. Wright, 17/20, 85%, 9-28 (+ 1 >28), 16.88, 19th, TWICE
19. Kincaid, 17/20, 85%, 15-28 (+1 >28), 19.24, 15th, TWICE
20. Banks, 17/20, 85%, 16-28 (+2 > 28), 19.88, 17th, ONCE
21. N. Smith, 16/20, 80%, 8-28 (+3 >28), 13.88, tie 10th & 12th, ONCE
22. Murphy, 14/20, 70%, 8-27 (+6 >28), 17.0, tie 20th & 24th, zero
23. Kancey, 11/20, 55%, 6-28 (+8 >28), 19.91, 18th, ONCE
24. Mayer, 9/20, 45%, 15-28 (+5 >28), 24.78, 28th, FIVE
25. Forbes, 5/20, 25%, 22-28 (+14 > 28), 23.2, TWICE (1 at 24)
It looks to me like the Milker mock scenario, where all the Tier 2 guys are gone before we pick, is becoming more & more likely. Wright makes it to #28 3 times, but 2 were in March mocks. Flowers is gaining buzz as the #2 WR behind JAN, whose pro day erased all doubts about him falling. Van Ness & Robinson never make it to us, and neither does N. Smith outside the CBS bubble. Banks is also gaining steam.
Kincaid is picking up steam as TE1 to GB at 15, and intel suggests Mayer won't get by Dallas at 26 if Kincaid is gone. Numerically, Murphy, Kancey, Mayer, & Firbes are the best bets. Mayer is covered already. Kancey & Forbes are rising, and Murphy is all around solid with a great motor and 40 time.
We need 3 giys from tier 3 to get called before 28 to guarantee us a Tier 2 player. The most common names are two WRs: Addison (17/20) and Johnston (12/20). Only 2 WRs before 28 would be pretty unusual. Hyatt is picked prior to 28 5/20. The more WRs taken, the better! One mock even had Downs going.
Brian Branch also went top 27 12 times out if 20, matching Johnston..The two next most common, G Torrence (9/20) and QB Hooker (8/20). Hyatt's 5/20 and DT Bresee (4/20) are the next most common.
3 times: Sanders (LB), Simpson (LB), Smith (CB), Gibbs (RB), Schmitz ©.
2 times: Washington (TE), LaPorta (TE), Harrison (OT), Mauch (OL), M. Smith (DT), Avila (OG).
1 time: Downs (WR), Musgrave (TE), Bergeron (OT), Tippman (OC), White (DL), Adebewore (DL), Turner (CB).
We need 3.
