Jonah Williams Requests Trade

[jj22]

(04-23-2023, 06:29 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I don't get why this is hard to grasp. We only carry 4 OTs. We have 3 OTs on the roster with a LOT of starting experience in the NFL, and multiple good years (Brown, Williams, and Collins). Plus Carman, who flashed pretty well in the POs at his natural position. Plus, 2 more guys with good amounts NFL experience (Fird & Adeniji). That is 6 plus Smith. 

I get that Collins & Williams both had the worst years of their careers last year. And that is concerning. But I think injuries played a part for both. Jonah should be goid to go and Collins still could be. Let's look objectively at what we have and what the FO has done at OL..

 Brown is a 4 time Pro-Bowler who has not allowed a sack in 4 of the 5 PO runs he's been a part of. He us thexstarting LT. Period. One spot taken. 

Carman had some maturity issues the first year and did not transition to guard well. He played well vs KC and more than passably vs Buffalo & Baltimore back at tackle. And flashed a mean streak. At worst, he is a competent backup LT. At best, he continues to improve and challenges/takes over RT. Anyway, he is going nowhere. Two spots taken. 

Williams had a bad year last year playing on one leg after week 5, but 2021 & 2020 were league average at LT. Maybe even a smidge higher. 2021 surely. Yes, he was bad prior to week 5. So was Burrow. He was still good enough at LT for us to win 8 in a row, including vs KC, even on one leg. We picked up his 5th year option. Before Brown fell in our laps, all signs were the FO was good with starting him at LT next year. We did not pursue high level OTs in FA, even after Bates & Bell & Hurst bolted. After, we were good with him starting at RT. We gain nothing by cutting him, cap wise. But the bottom line is, all evidence points to the fact that the FO was comfortable with him being the starter prior to the trade request/Brown signing. Absent the request, 3 OT spots would be locked in. Absent an actual trade, 3 are. He is not gonna sit out. He'd lose $12.6 mil & still be under team control AND he'd be blackballed (I think those last two are true). 

That leaves one spot. Collins had had a nice career in Dallas albeit with some injury concerns. We were rightly excited to get him. He underperformed expectations. The offense (line AND Burrow) were terrible early. Still, he was our best run blocker AND we were good enough to be rolling into the POs with Collins at RT. Our line problems last year were not that the starters sucked, it was that 3 of them got hurt & 2 backups underperformed vs KC/Balt. 

I am more optimistic than most on Collins' recovery. When he initially got hurt, he thought he might be able to play next week. The scans revealed more damage. But he says the recovery is on schedule, less restrictive than the hip, and he is still shooting for opening day. If Collins is healthy, he is miles better than Ford, Adeniji, or Smith. He'd have an iron grip on the last OT spot. But he isn't. 

Even assuming he starts on IR/PUP, I would not cut him. His contract is structured (so I hear) so that if he is not on the 53, the cap hit is lower. And he is signed for two more years. He played guard early on. We need depth there. I think the chances he misses the entire year are low. How he looks is an open question we cannot answer yet. Until I get a definite NO I am not cutting him. And even if I get a no on this year, the cost is fairly low & he is quality RT (and maybe even G) depth in 2024. I like the idea of a fresh Collins bolstering us late in the year. Even if it is just jumbo sets, I think he can help situationally. 

Anywho, without a Jonah trade, 1 spot is open. The #4 OT spot. We have 3 candidates. We brought Ford in and specifically told him he could compete at RT. He has some exp at guard and coukd servexas OT4/OG4 until Collins is back or we draft more IOL help. He has a zero dead cap. Adeniji was is still here, and was decent save for the Balt/KC games. He has minimal dead cap. Smith is a total project who has shown nothing. $600k dead cap. Not great options. But as a possibly temporary #4 OT, I can live with it. 2 are likely gone unless Ford is #4 OG as well. 

Yes, we can get off all 3 pretry cheaply. But until Jonah gets traded, a draft pick is competing for the #4 OT spot. And #5 if Collins gets back. Likely not playing. Upgrading the #4 OT spot (if Collins is not ready) is not a huge flasing light of 8mmediate need. We have 4 candidates. The likelihood a rookie is better than the top 3 is slim. Once you get past Wright, real slim. Maybe D. Jones or Bergeron. Bergeron would be switching sides.  

We have other spots with more immediate needs. And/or worse depth.  I'd argue everything save LB, PK, and LS. 

TE1 needs filling and Sample/Asiasi suck worse than Carman/Collins/Ford. 

RB2 is open & Evans is iffy at RB4. 

QB2 is open. 

CB. Chido is also coming off injury, in his last year, and Jones/George/Davis ain't exactly proven CB depth.

At DL, Reader is in his last year and there is no replacement on roster.  BJ Hill makes $10 mil a year, and we don't get a ton of pass rush from him or DJ, nor Carter/Tupou/Tufele. We usually carry 5 DEs, and while Trey and Sam are good, and I like Ossai's growth and Sample's run D, more pass rusg is needed. If Gunter/Basham turned into Murphy, I'd do backflips.

Speaking of, Boyd is in his last year, and Irwin/Taylor/Morgan are like March of the Penguins when it comes to getting separation. Some non-Chase speed could do wonders. A big WR and a slot are needed, in my view. At least upgrade Morgan. 

IOL is more of a need. I like Carnan/Collins (by PO time) a lot more as depth than Schaping + nobody (or Ford/Adeniji) at guard or Hill at C. 

I like our S room more than most, but Hill has barely played, Anderson not at all, and Scott has started for 1 year. Thomas can mentor them for a year, but if he has to play a lot, we are in trouble. 

 Reserve DL play all the time, as does RB2, TE2, and CB4 in nickel. 

I know many disagree, but I just think unless it is a plug and play kind of guy (Wright), and Jonah stays, OT#4 is not a huge priority. Even when Jonah leaves next year, we still have Brown + Carman + Collins. 

Don't get me wrong, I see the long term issue at RT. If Wright falls in our lap at #28 I jump for joy & I trade Jonah for an extra Day 2 pick. And see what that $12.6 can do this year (though most good FAs are gone). If not, I am strongly inclined to keep him, land a  compensatory 3rd next year, and use the picks this year on guys who are likely to play more at TE, CB, DE, DT, and RB. Or upgrade the depth more at WR, or IOL. 

The draft class next year is likely gonna be better at OL and WR, we'll have a better shot then. And that's assuming Carman does not blossom. We don't need the $$$ at present.

Sorry for the treatise on the subject. It is the last I will say on it. Absent a Jonah trade, we are talking OT4 at best, and we have more urgent needs.

Now when I said this (listing outstanding needs) you tried to come for me and claim I was calling the roster trash. I can pull the receipts, but it's pretty much understood around here that people don't like to hear me say things just to repeat them weeks later like it's their own brilliant opinion.