07-13-2023, 12:14 PM
Today is the final day of the all star break and we can look forward to more baseball starting tomorrow.
In this all star break, I was kind of bored, so I looked up how Hunter Greene was pitching before he was injured.
In April (including his first start on March 30th), Hunter had 6 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 29 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 24 GB, 48 FB, 125 BF (batters faces) for an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.43
In May, Hunter had 5 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 26 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 7 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 25 GB, 42 FB, 119 BF for an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP of 1.32
In June, Hunter had 3 starts before going down with an injury and his stat line was:
17.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 20 K, 12 GB, 32 FB, 74 BF for an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.27
If I include his 4th to last start (that was in May) with his 3 June starts, the stat line of his 4 most recent games was:
23.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 31 K, 15 GB, 36 FB, 94 BF for an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.03
What really sticks out to me about these stat lines is that, throughout the season, his K rate and BB rate stayed....remarkably consistent. I mean, K rates of 32% in March/April, 33.6% in May, 27% in June (32.9% if you count the final May start with June) and BB rates of 8.8% in March/April, 9.2% in May, 12.2% in June (11.7% if you count the final May start with June) and his GB/FB rates are also very consistent, averaging about 1.75 to 2 fly balls for each ground ball. The fly ball rates and walk rates go up a bit in those final 4 starts, but not alarmingly so.
It seems to me that the biggest differentiator when it comes to Hunter Greene's effectiveness is whether those fly balls turn into home runs or not.
In his two periods of elite play, June and March/April, his HR/FB rate was virtually non-existent. 2.1% in March/April and 3.1% in June (2.8% if you count the final May start with June). But in May, that rate was a staggering 16.7%!
For context, Fangraphs considers a HR/FB rate of 13% to be "Awful" and is the lowest metric that they consider.
Greene's May HR/FB rate of 16.7% is similar to Nick Lodolo's HR/FB rate of 18.5%, both of which are (and were) simply...unsustainable. Even the worst Homerun allowers do not do it at that clip. The worst homerun % in baseball (among qualifying pitchers) is Yusei Kikuchi at 5.6%, which is lower than Hunter Greene's HR % from May of 5.9% and Lodolo's 6.0%.
So what does this tell me about Hunter Greene...Well, it sounds kind of obvious, but when he's not allowing home runs, he's a truly elite pitcher. We're talking top 10 in the game. His K rate is already among the best in the major leagues. His 31.4% would rank #5 in all of baseball if he had thrown enough innings to qualify. His BB rate is not great, at 9.7%, but that's not too far off from other elite pitchers like Marcus Stroman (9%), Sonny Gray (9.3%) or Shohei Ohtani (10.3%). Something to work on but not a glaring red flag either.
Suffice it to say, I am excited for Greene's return. I am also looking forward to Lodolo's return, the only difference being Greene showed that those HR numbers were an outlier by being elite in his final 4 starts before injury, whereas Lodolo was in the midst of his slump when he went on the IL.
I am extremely confident that when Greene comes back, he'll be our Ace again...I'm still a little concerned for Lodolo but his HR rates are almost certainly going to come down whenever he returns, which will make him an above average pitcher once again.
For context, in 2022, Nick Lodolo had a HR% of 2.9% and a HR/FB ratio of 9.4% (along with a K % of 29.7% and a BB rate of 8.8%), so this season has been a complete 180 from last year. I don't expect that trend to continue when he returns.
Can you tell I'm bored and looking forward to baseball resuming?
In this all star break, I was kind of bored, so I looked up how Hunter Greene was pitching before he was injured.
In April (including his first start on March 30th), Hunter had 6 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 29 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 24 GB, 48 FB, 125 BF (batters faces) for an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.43
In May, Hunter had 5 starts and his stat line was:
28.0 IP, 26 H, 17 R, 17 ER, 7 HR, 11 BB, 40 K, 25 GB, 42 FB, 119 BF for an ERA of 5.46 and a WHIP of 1.32
In June, Hunter had 3 starts before going down with an injury and his stat line was:
17.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 20 K, 12 GB, 32 FB, 74 BF for an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.27
If I include his 4th to last start (that was in May) with his 3 June starts, the stat line of his 4 most recent games was:
23.1 IP, 13 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 31 K, 15 GB, 36 FB, 94 BF for an ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.03
What really sticks out to me about these stat lines is that, throughout the season, his K rate and BB rate stayed....remarkably consistent. I mean, K rates of 32% in March/April, 33.6% in May, 27% in June (32.9% if you count the final May start with June) and BB rates of 8.8% in March/April, 9.2% in May, 12.2% in June (11.7% if you count the final May start with June) and his GB/FB rates are also very consistent, averaging about 1.75 to 2 fly balls for each ground ball. The fly ball rates and walk rates go up a bit in those final 4 starts, but not alarmingly so.
It seems to me that the biggest differentiator when it comes to Hunter Greene's effectiveness is whether those fly balls turn into home runs or not.
In his two periods of elite play, June and March/April, his HR/FB rate was virtually non-existent. 2.1% in March/April and 3.1% in June (2.8% if you count the final May start with June). But in May, that rate was a staggering 16.7%!
For context, Fangraphs considers a HR/FB rate of 13% to be "Awful" and is the lowest metric that they consider.
Greene's May HR/FB rate of 16.7% is similar to Nick Lodolo's HR/FB rate of 18.5%, both of which are (and were) simply...unsustainable. Even the worst Homerun allowers do not do it at that clip. The worst homerun % in baseball (among qualifying pitchers) is Yusei Kikuchi at 5.6%, which is lower than Hunter Greene's HR % from May of 5.9% and Lodolo's 6.0%.
So what does this tell me about Hunter Greene...Well, it sounds kind of obvious, but when he's not allowing home runs, he's a truly elite pitcher. We're talking top 10 in the game. His K rate is already among the best in the major leagues. His 31.4% would rank #5 in all of baseball if he had thrown enough innings to qualify. His BB rate is not great, at 9.7%, but that's not too far off from other elite pitchers like Marcus Stroman (9%), Sonny Gray (9.3%) or Shohei Ohtani (10.3%). Something to work on but not a glaring red flag either.
Suffice it to say, I am excited for Greene's return. I am also looking forward to Lodolo's return, the only difference being Greene showed that those HR numbers were an outlier by being elite in his final 4 starts before injury, whereas Lodolo was in the midst of his slump when he went on the IL.
I am extremely confident that when Greene comes back, he'll be our Ace again...I'm still a little concerned for Lodolo but his HR rates are almost certainly going to come down whenever he returns, which will make him an above average pitcher once again.
For context, in 2022, Nick Lodolo had a HR% of 2.9% and a HR/FB ratio of 9.4% (along with a K % of 29.7% and a BB rate of 8.8%), so this season has been a complete 180 from last year. I don't expect that trend to continue when he returns.
Can you tell I'm bored and looking forward to baseball resuming?
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
