Are we going to war?

[Dill]

(07-15-2023, 08:07 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: So, this isn't getting as much coverage as I would've thought it would, and frankly I am surprised it didn't get talked about on here yet: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/07/13/ordering-the-selected-reserve-and-certain-members-of-the-individual-ready-reserve-of-the-armed-forces-to-active-duty/

So, not everyone here has a military background, myself included, but I am familiar with this process so I will explain. After your typical six-year stint in the service you get your DD-214 and you wander off to civilian life. Except, you spend two years on IRR, or Individual Ready Reserve. You can drill if you want, or don't, but the tl;dr is that you still belong to Uncle Sam in case they need you, like if we go to war.

This executive action is activating some members of the IRR, specifically for Operation Atlantic Resolve, which is the European actions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was done during Desert Shield, GWOT, and OIF. Things do not look good.

This is not so unusual when our military resources are being mobilized to help a friend like Ukraine stop and adversary like Russia. It is not like Desert Shield etc. in that the U.S. is not preparing for mass, direct U.S. military engagement.

One of my nephews, a school teacher and Army Chaplain's assistant in the reserves, was deployed to Poland a couple years ago in a similar mobilization, and may be again in the next year.

Putin looks rather unstable now. The Wagner rebellion especially has to have him desperate to maintain the illusion of control, while making it all that much more difficult to sell his war to the Russian people. He cannot resign without risking his own life and freedom, and he has to be worrying about possible coup attempts. It would be stupid to close out entirely the possibility of a war with Russia. But I think Putin's decided incentive to remain in control of at least Russia precludes war with the U.S.  Both sides understand how unpredictable war is--especially they guy who thought he could waltz through the Ukraine in a couple of days. 

Biden ALSO has an incentive not to got to war with Russia, namely that it would like cost him re-election. 

Outside of a Trump win in 2024, which could complicate, reduce, or even end U.S. support for Ukraine, Putin has little chance of accomplishing his original objectives, even though it is to early to proclaim, as Biden did yesterday, that he has already lost. 

But the U.S. is going to be supporting Ukraine for some time, at least two years, and that means some boots on the ground in Poland and Germany and other places. 

The 3,000 men which could be (but aren't yet) called up would be for rotating out current support troops in Central and Eastern Europe, not for massing additional forces ahead of an imminent strike.